Energy Transition

One round‑trip flight between New York and San Francisco generates two to three tons of carbon dioxide emissions per passenger, more than 10 percent of the annual carbon footprint of the typical American. The aircraft further heats up the climate through the cloudlike contrails (condensation trails) that form in its wake, and by cruising at an altitude where the warming effect of greenhouse gases is magnified.

As the world strives for a low‑carbon future, the search is on for fuels that are both emissions‑free and cost‑competitive with fossil fuels. One way to estimate how low alternative fuels must be priced to go head‑to‑head with fossil fuels is to run the Joint Program’s Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which estimates the evolving costs of coal, oil and natural gas. By default, EPPA projects a long‑term rise in the price of oil as producers gradually exhaust low‑cost extraction opportunities and increasingly turn to higher‑cost resources.

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