Risk Analysis

Assessing Future Risks from Global Change

To quantify risks at the global scale requires large ensembles of model simulations, and thus a numerically efficient model. For this purpose we use a version of the IGSM framework with a two-dimensional atmosphere and ocean. For regional and other high-resolution studies, the ocean, atmosphere and land systems are resolved in three dimensions. The IGSM framework is designed to address a wide range of quantifiable, policy-relevant questions that involve the integration of natural and social sciences, such as:

  • What methods can be used to quantify global and regional risks of environmental change?
  • What are the advantages and risks of waiting for better scientific understanding of such change?
  • How does uncertainty about future climate or climate policy affect near-term investment decision?

To learn how your organization can benefit from funding our research, please visit the Joint Program Sponsorship page. 

Key Papers on Risk Analysis


Journal Article
O’Neill, B.C., J. Morris, J. Lamontagne, J. Weyant and M. Wise (2024). Earth's Future, 12(5) (doi: 10.1029/2023EF004343)
Journal Article
Kanyako, F., J. Lamontagne, A. Snyder, J. Morris, G. Iyer, F. Dolan, Y. Ou and K. Cox (2023). Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2023EF003930
Conference Proceedings Paper
Morris, J. and K. Cox (2023). American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting,

News + Media

Research Projects


Administration, Faculty
CGCS; Joint Program
Collaborators, Alumni
CGCS; Joint Program
Research staff
Joint Program
Sloan; Joint Program
Research staff
Center for Global Change Science; MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Research staff
CGCS; Joint Program
Research staff
Joint Program; CGCS