Risk Analysis

Assessing Future Risks from Global Change

To quantify risks at the global scale requires large ensembles of model simulations, and thus a numerically efficient model. For this purpose we use a version of the IGSM framework with a two-dimensional atmosphere and ocean. For regional and other high-resolution studies, the ocean, atmosphere and land systems are resolved in three dimensions. The IGSM framework is designed to address a wide range of quantifiable, policy-relevant questions that involve the integration of natural and social sciences, such as:

  • What methods can be used to quantify global and regional risks of environmental change?
  • What are the advantages and risks of waiting for better scientific understanding of such change?
  • How does uncertainty about future climate or climate policy affect near-term investment decision?


Journal Article
Morris, J., V.  Srikrishnan, M. Webster and J. Reilly (2017). Energy Journal, online first (10.5547/01956574.39.1.jmor)
Joint Program Report
Monier, E., L. Xu and R. Snyder (2016). Joint Program Report Series Report 293, 20 p. [PDF]
Joint Program Reprint, Journal Article
Fant, C., C.A. Schlosser, X. Gao, K. Strzepek and J. Reilly (2016). PLoS ONE, 11(3): e0150633 [PDF]

News + Media

Research Projects


Administration, Faculty
Sloan; Joint Program
Administration, Faculty
CGCS; Joint Program
Research staff
CGCS; Joint Program
Research staff, Alumni
Joint Program
Research staff
CGCS; Joint Program
Research staff
Joint Program; CGCS