Risk Analysis

Assessing Future Risks from Global Change

To quantify risks at the global scale requires large ensembles of model simulations, and thus a numerically efficient model. For this purpose we use a version of the IGSM framework with a two-dimensional atmosphere and ocean. For regional and other high-resolution studies, the ocean, atmosphere and land systems are resolved in three dimensions. The IGSM framework is designed to address a wide range of quantifiable, policy-relevant questions that involve the integration of natural and social sciences, such as:

  • What methods can be used to quantify global and regional risks of environmental change?
  • What are the advantages and risks of waiting for better scientific understanding of such change?
  • How does uncertainty about future climate or climate policy affect near-term investment decision?

To learn how your organization can benefit from funding our research, please visit the Joint Program Sponsorship page. 

Key Papers on Risk Analysis


Journal Article
Gillingham, K., W. Nordhaus, D. Anthoff, G. Blanford, V. Bosetti, P. Christensen, H. McJeon and J. Reilly (2018). Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 5(4), 791-826. (doi: 10.1086/698910)
Joint Program Reprint, Journal Article
Sokolov, A., D. Kicklighter, C.A. Schlosser, C. Wang, E. Monier, B. Brown-Steiner, R. Prinn, C. Forest, X. Gao, A. Libardoni and S. Eastham (2018). AGU Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems , 10(8), 1759-1789 (doi: 10.1029/2018MS001277) [PDF]
Joint Program Reprint, Journal Article
Morris, J., V.  Srikrishnan, M. Webster and J. Reilly (2018). Energy Journal, 39(1), 10.5547/01956574.39.1.jmor [PDF]

News + Media

Research Projects


Administration, Faculty
Sloan; Joint Program
Administration, Faculty
CGCS; Joint Program
Office of the MIT Vice President for Research; MIT Joint Program
Collaborators, Alumni
CGCS; Joint Program
Research staff, Alumni
Joint Program
Research staff
CGCS; Joint Program
Research staff
Joint Program; CGCS