Uncertainty Characterization and Scenario Discover in the Global Change Intersectoral Modeling System (GCIMS)

Active Project
Uncertainty Characterization and Scenario Discover in the Global Change Intersectoral Modeling System (GCIMS)

Focus Areas: 

  • Managed Resources
  • Infrastructure & Investment
  • Multi-Sector Dynamics

This project focuses on the role of influences, responses and feedbacks in the coupled human–Earth system. Specifically: (1) how compounding human and environmental influences affect the coevolution of energy, water, land, climate and socioeconomic systems; (2) how regional teleconnections via trade create, amplify or attenuate the effect of these influences; (3) how human responses to short-term influences affect the long-term dynamics of these systems through investments in storage technologies; and (4) how the response of the human–Earth system to influences creates feedbacks that have the potential to alter the original influences. Scientific advances emerging from this work may include improved emulation of human and environmental influences; advances in understanding how demand, trade, storage and other responses interact across energy, water and land systems; and identification of new potential feedbacks between natural systems and human activities. 

Duration: 4 years 

Funding Sources

Project Leaders

Research staff
Joint Program