Energy Transition

Evaluation of land resources by the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization suggest availability of arable land itself is not a major constraint on food production at least through mid-century, assuming continued yield improvements. There are, however, some wild cards that could vastly impact agriculture in the coming decades.

The U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is leading a study of renewable electricity futures for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and has enlisted the MIT Global Change Program for analytical support. In addition to the MIT component of the effort, the NREL study involves a set of subject matter experts as well as a broad set of stakeholders including financiers, utilities, system integrators, and equipment manufacturers.

This project involves the development of an improved facility for economic analysis of the issues discussed below, which involve changing feedstock quality, fuel demand, and processing and related technologies. The main vehicle for the research is a set of enhanced versions of the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. It is being applied to studies of the implications for fuel markets under evolving regulatory regimes.

The electric power industry is changing rapidly, with more customers increasing demand and asking for improved response times and more renewable technologies. To prepare our power systems for the next generation, we need to improve both long- and short-term investment planning for generation technologies and systems. This project will aid that effort by developing new data designs that can be used to create methods for optimizing large engineering systems.

This project aims to provide improved understanding of the complex interactions between climate change and conventional air pollution, which are linked because greenhouse gases and conventional air pollutants result from shared generation processes, they interact chemically in the atmosphere, jointly affect climate, and the impacts of these environmental changes have multiple and potentially non- marginal effects on economic activities.

Federal standards for fine particulate matter and tropospheric ozone have become increasingly stringent over the past several decades. States preparing attainment plans will be challenged with accounting for the regional and longer-range transport of these pollutants and their precursors and with the higher marginal costs of additional permanent or annual emissions reductions in the future.

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