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The Economic, Energy and Emissions Impacts of Climate Policy in South Korea

Summary: South Korea’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement included a pledge to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37 percent in 2030 from levels projected for that year under business-as-usual policies. Using an economy-wide model, researchers at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change projected that under South Korea’s Emissions Trading System (KETS) with fuel economy standards, the country would require a 2030 carbon price of $89 per metric ton of carbon dioxide-equivalent to meet its NDC target. According to their analysis, if economic benefits from avoided climate damages are excluded from consideration, the combined policies would reduce 2030 GDP by $20.6 billion (1.0 percent) and consumer welfare by 7.9 billion (0.7 percent). Adding the fuel economy standard to KETS increases the cost of meeting South Korea’s NDC: it reduces GDP and consumer welfare by, respectively, $4.2 billion and $1.1 billion relative to reducing emissions with just an ETS. The researchers also found that production declines under the combined policies are largest for three sets of sectors: fossil-based energy; chemical, rubber and plastic products; and iron and steel.

Obtaining Phytoplankton Diversity from Ocean Color: A Scientific Roadmap for Future Development

To improve our understanding of the role of phytoplankton for marine ecosystems and global biogeochemical cycles, information on the global distribution of major phytoplankton groups is essential. Although algorithms have been developed to assess phytoplankton diversity from space for over two decades, so far the application of these data sets has been limited. This scientific roadmap identifies user needs, summarizes the current state of the art, and pinpoints major gaps in long-term objectives to deliver space-derived phytoplankton diversity data that meets the user requirements. These major gaps in using ocean color to estimate phytoplankton community structure were identified as: (a) the mismatch between satellite, in situ and model data on phytoplankton composition, (b) the lack of quantitative uncertainty estimates provided with satellite data, (c) the spectral limitation of current sensors to enable the full exploitation of backscattered sunlight, and (d) the very limited applicability of satellite algorithms determining phytoplankton composition for regional, especially coastal or inland, waters. Recommendation for actions include but are not limited to: (i) an increased communication and round-robin exercises among and within the related expert groups, (ii) the launching of higher spectrally and spatially resolved sensors, (iii) the development of algorithms that exploit hyperspectral information, and of (iv) techniques to merge and synergistically use the various streams of continuous information on phytoplankton diversity from various satellite sensors' and in situ data to ensure long-term monitoring of phytoplankton composition.

Climate Change Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in U.S. Freshwaters: A Screening-Level Assessment

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) have serious adverse effects on human and environmental health. Herein, we developed a modeling framework that predicts the effect of climate change on cyanobacteria concentrations in large reservoirs in the contiguous U.S. The framework, which uses climate change projections from five global circulation models, two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and two cyanobacterial growth scenarios, is unique in coupling climate projections with a hydrologic/water quality network model of the contiguous United States. Thus, it generates both regional and nationwide projections useful as a screening-level assessment of climate impacts on CyanoHAB prevalence as well as potential lost recreation days and associated economic value. Our projections indicate that CyanoHAB concentrations are likely to increase primarily due to water temperature increases tempered by increased nutrient levels resulting from changing demographics and climatic impacts on hydrology that drive nutrient transport. The combination of these factors results in the mean number of days of CyanoHAB occurrence ranging from about 7 days per year per waterbody under current conditions, to 16–23 days in 2050 and 18–39 days in 2090. From a regional perspective, we find the largest increases in CyanoHAB occurrence in the Northeast U.S., while the greatest impacts to recreation, in terms of costs, are in the Southeast.

Biogeochemical versus ecological consequences of modeled ocean physics

We present a systematic study of the differences generated by coupling the same ecological–biogeochemical model to a 1°, coarse-resolution, and 1∕6°, eddy-permitting, global ocean circulation model to (a) biogeochemistry (e.g., primary production) and (b) phytoplankton community structure. Surprisingly, we find that the modeled phytoplankton community is largely unchanged, with the same phenotypes dominating in both cases. Conversely, there are large regional and seasonal variations in primary production, phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. In the subtropics, mixed layer depths (MLDs) are, on average, deeper in the eddy-permitting model, resulting in higher nutrient supply driving increases in primary production and phytoplankton biomass. In the higher latitudes, differences in winter mixed layer depths, the timing of the onset of the spring bloom and vertical nutrient supply result in lower primary production in the eddy-permitting model. Counterintuitively, this does not drive a decrease in phytoplankton biomass but results in lower zooplankton biomass. We explain these similarities and differences in the model using the framework of resource competition theory, and find that they are the consequence of changes in the regional and seasonal nutrient supply and light environment, mediated by differences in the modeled mixed layer depths. Although previous work has suggested that complex models may respond chaotically and unpredictably to changes in forcing, we find that our model responds in a predictable way to different ocean circulation forcing, despite its complexity. The use of frameworks, such as resource competition theory, provides a tractable way to explore the differences and similarities that occur. As this model has many similarities to other widely used biogeochemical models that also resolve multiple phytoplankton phenotypes, this study provides important insights into how the results of running these models under different physical conditions might be more easily understood.

Deriving global OH abundance and atmospheric lifetimes for long-lived gases: A search for CH3CCl3 alternatives

An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom-up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative. We illustrate that global emissions of long-lived trace gases can be inferred from their observed mixing ratio differences between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), given realistic estimates of their NH-SH exchange time, the emission partitioning between the two hemispheres, and the NH versus SH OH abundance ratio. Using the observed long-term trend and emissions derived from the measured hemispheric gradient, the combination of HFC-32 (CH2F2), HFC-134a (CH2FCF3, HFC-152a (CH3CHF2), and HCFC-22 (CHClF2), instead of a single gas, will be useful as a MCF alternative to infer global and hemispheric OH abundance and trace gas lifetimes. The primary assumption on which this multispecies approach relies is that the OH lifetimes can be estimated by scaling the thermal reaction rates of a reference gas at 272 K on global and hemispheric scales. Thus, the derived hemispheric and global OH estimates are forced to reconcile the observed trends and gradient for all four compounds simultaneously. However, currently, observations of these gases from the surface networks do not provide more accurate OH abundance estimate than that from MCF.

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): Facing the Challenges and Pathways of Global Change in the 21st Century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts.

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