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Assessments of the geologic storage capacity of carbon dioxide in the current literature are incomplete and inconsistent, complicating efforts to assess the worldwide potential for carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). We developed a method for generating first-order estimates of storage capacity requiring minimal data to characterize a geologic formation. We show this simplified method accounts for the majority of the variance in storage capacity found in more detailed studies conducted in the United States. We apply our method to create a worldwide database of storage capacity, disaggregated into 18 regions, and compare this storage capacity to CCS deployment in the MIT Economic Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. Globally, we estimate there are between 8,000 and 55,000 gigatonnes (Gt) of practically accessible geologic storage capacity for carbon dioxide. For most of the regions, our results indicate storage capacity is not a limiting factor for CCS deployment through the rest of this century even if stringent emissions reductions are required.

National commitments on the Paris Agreement on climate change interact with other global environment and sustainability objectives, such as the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the global Sustainable Development Goals. Understanding the interactions between climate change, air pollution, and sustainable development can help decision-makers identify more effective policies that can address environmental and economic goals simultaneously. To address environmental goals, I assess how mercury co-benefits (positive side effects that are peripheral to a policy’s main goal) of a national climate policy in China could contribute to the country’s commitments under the Minamata Convention. I examine climate policy scenarios in 2030 corresponding to various levels of carbon intensity reductions in addition to a business-as-usual scenario and an end-of-pipe control scenario that meets China’s commitments under the Minamata Convention on Mercury. Economic analysis from a computable general equilibrium model of China’s economy provides information on changes in economic activity resulting from the climate policy scenarios. Using the economic data from this model, I scale 2007 mercury emissions in a variety of sectors to 2030. I then use a global atmospheric transport model to project changes in mercury deposition at the regional scale in China for each policy scenario. I find that climate policy in China can provide mercury emissions and deposition co-benefits similar to end-of-pipe control policies that meet the country’s Minamata Convention commitments. To address sustainable development goals, I investigate the use of the Inclusive Wealth Index for evaluating the sustainability of climate policy in China on the basis of produced capital, natural capital, and human capital at the provincial level. I find that most provinces in China exhibit an increase in Inclusive Wealth under several climate policy scenarios, providing an alternative metric for monetizing policy impacts.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the main greenhouse gases, contributing about 81% of the total human induced radiative forcing. Sufficient observations exist to quantify the global budget of carbon dioxide and methane which is necessary for calculating the resulting radiative forcing. Still, more observations are needed to constrain their time evolution and regional budgets which are needed for climate change mitigation policies. Atmospheric observations are particularly scarce on the African continent, despite Africa’s significant CO2 emissions from agriculture, biomass burning and land use changes, as well as methane emissions from wetlands. there are very few low frequency flask measurements due to limited logistics and there is no land based station at all in equatorial Africa. Satellite observations can only provide an incomplete record due to frequent clouds and aerosol in the equatorial belt.

We have set up a high-frequency in-situ greenhouse gases monitoring station in North West Rwanda at Mount Mugogo. The station is intended to be a long-term station, hence, filling the gap of current lack of measurements in Equatorial Africa. The station is part of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and follow its calibration protocols and operational standards, therefore, providing data of internationally recognized quality standards. We have found that massive regional scale biomass burning largely drives the bi-model seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and black carbon with the burning following the shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone. The seasonal cycle of methane is largely driven by the inter-hemispheric gradient, where methane-rich northern hemisphere air masses are advected to the station during the northern winter.

We have used the Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimated optimized methane and carbon dioxide emissions in the Central and East African region. We have found that the region emitted about 25 Tg of CH4 and 139 Tg of CO2 in 2016.

Amid much uncertainty about the future of the global climate and efforts aimed at preventing its most damaging impacts, graduate students affiliated with the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change are hard at work exploring some of the challenges and possible solutions that lie ahead. They are also sharing their knowledge with the MIT community.

Short-term variability and long-term change in climate pose a challenge to water planners. Some climate uncertainties can be reduced over time as new information is collected, while others are irreducible. This presentation shows how flexible water-supply infrastructure planning can help mitigate climate risk at lower cost, especially for uncertainties with high learning potential

The weather in a few days can be difficult to predict, especially with certain phenomena such as thunderstorms. If this is the case, then how can we trust climate projections over several decades? This session’s co-leaders discuss the similarities and differences between predicting next week's weather and the climate in 2100, and how they allow us to make confident climate projections.

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