Regional Analysis

This cooperative project, led by Purdue University with participation from MIT and the Marine Biological Laboratory, is investigating how patterns of land-use in Northern Eurasia may change in the future due to: 1) Economic pressures for providing food, fiber and fuel to a growing global population; 2) Opportunities for expanding managed ecosystems into areas that experience a more favorable climate in the future; and 3) Abandonment of managed ecosystems in other areas that experience a less favorable climate.

Regional and Global Climate and Societal Impacts of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change in Northern Eurasia: A Synthesis Study Using Remote Sensing Data and An Integrated Global System Model

This study aims to identify regions where the resiliency to withstand extreme weather and climate events is at risk, and therefore degrade the regions' ability to resist any changes. This will aid stakeholders and decision-makers as they prepare for and adapt to environmental change. By employing a variety of models, including MIT's Integrated System Model (IGSM), we will evaluate how a set of environmental stresses affects specific regions. This work will also develop a heuristic model to serve as more efficient and powerful predictive tool to help guide adaptation strategies.

Future of Ecosystems and Extremes: Using Diverse Environmental Data Sets in Support of Regional to Global Earth-System Models and Predictions

The goal of this project is to demonstrate that the operation of electricity generation and water supply infrastructures can be made more resilient and sustainable by integrating assessments of air quality and water availability into electricity generation dispatching decisions. The project will:

The Interface of Infrastructures, Markets, and Natural Cycles - Innovative modeling and control mechanisms for managing electricity, water and air quality in Texas

This project is developing a model for analyzing potential U.S greenhouse gas policies proposed within the U.S., with a capability to assess impacts on regions, sectors and industries of various combination of mitigation policies and adaptation measures. The effort builds on the existing capability of the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which has been developed by the Program to analyze the global economic consequences of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases.

A Model for Economic Assessment of US Climate Policy
Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st Century

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions.We apply the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO2 fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO2 fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post-fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime. © Wiley Blackwell

The Cost of Kyoto Protocol Targets: The Case of Japan

This paper applies the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to analysis of the cost of the Kyoto Protocol targets, with a special focus on Japan. The analysis demonstrates the implications of the use of different measures of cost, and explains the apparent paradox that the relative carbon price among Kyoto parties may not be an accurate measure of their relative welfare costs. Attention is given to the role of relative emissions intensity and various distortions, in the form of fuel and other taxes, in determining the burden of a climate policy. Also, effects of climate policy on welfare through an influence on the terms of trade are explored. We consider the cases of the EU, Japan, and Canada, each meeting their Kyoto targets, and the US meeting the Bush Administration's intensity target. For a country with a low emissions intensity as in Japan, the absolute reduction in tons is small relative to the macroeconomy, and this reduces its welfare loss as a share of total national welfare. Low emissions intensity (high energy efficiency) also means the economy has few options to reduce emissions still further, resulting in a higher carbon price. Energy efficiency thus pushes in both directions, lowering the number tons that need to be reduced but raising the direct cost per ton. But other factors also are important in explaining costs differences. Existing fuel taxes are very high in Japan and Europe, increasing the economic cost of a greenhouse gas emissions reduction policy. For these regions, the extra cost due to these distortions is several times the direct cost of the emissions mitigation policy itself. In contrast, fuels taxes are low in the US and relatively low in Canada. The US, EU, and Japan gain somewhat from reductions in world prices of oil and other fuels because they are net importers. Canada, in contrast, is a significant net energy exporter, and its policy costs rise considerably because of lost energy export revenue. This effect on Canada is due mostly to implementation of the policy in the other regions rather than to domestic implementation. Canada is also the most emissions intensive of these regions, a factor that contributes to its cost of control.

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