Human System Model

Economic Projection & Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model

The EPPA model provides projections of world economic development at a regional and sectoral level, including the economic implications of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, conventional air pollution, land-use change, food demand, and natural resource use.

EPPA simulates the evolution of economic, demographic, trade and technological processes involved in activities that affect the environment. We use it to investigate the economic implications of a wide range of phenomena, including:

Climate and environmental impacts (e.g. changes in crop yields and human health)
Resource depletion and new technologies
Policies aimed at reducing emissions of GHGs and other pollutants
Policies aimed at limiting trade or land-use change
Deployment of specific technologies (e.g. wind power, solar power, carbon capture and storage, crop yield-enhancing technology)
Simulations of future emissions of GHGs and other pollutants as input for the MIT Earth System Model (MESM ).
Land-use change and cover as input for the MIT Earth System Model (MESM ).
Energy, economic, and emission projections for the MIT Global Change Outlook.

The core model includes 18 global regions, but its framework has been applied with greater spatial, economic sector and household resolution for detailed studies.

More detailed information about the EPPA model structure

Download the public version of the EPPA model

To learn how your organization can benefit from funding our research, please visit the Joint Program Sponsorship page.

Lead EPPA Modelers

Sergey Paltsev, Henry Chen, Angelo Gurgel and Jennifer Morris

Key Papers on the EPPA Model

A multisectoral dynamic model for energy, economic and climate scenario analysis Chen et al., Low Carbon Economy, 13(2)
The MIT EPPA7: A Multisectoral Dynamic Model for Energy, Economic, and Climate Scenario Analysis Chen et al., MIT Joint Program Report 360 (2022).
Long-term economic modeling for climate change assessment Chen et al., Economic Modelling, 52(Part B): 867–883 (2016).
Representing the Costs of Low-Carbon Power Generation in Multi-region Multi-sector Energy-Economic Models Morris et al., International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 87, 170-187 (2019).
The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model: Version 4, Paltsev et al., MIT Joint Program Report 125 (2005).

Publications

Journal Article

Contribution of double-cropped maize ethanol in Brazil to sustainable development

Gurgel, A.C., J.E.A.Seabra, S.M. Arantes, M.M.R. Moreira, L. R. Lynd and R. Galindo (2024). Nature Sustainability, doi: 10.1038/s41893-024-01424-5

Special Report

Role of hydrogen in low-carbon energy transition

Paltsev, S. (2024). New Zealand Treasury paper: Themes from the Treasury’s Guest Lecture Series: Productivity in a Changing World , Presentation Summary, pp. 21-2

Journal Article

Mutual Reinforcement of Land-based Carbon Dioxide Removal and International Emissions Trading in Deep Decarbonization Scenarios

Morris, J., A. Gurgel, B. Mignone, H. Kheshgi and S. Paltsev (2024). Nature Communications, 15(7160) (doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-49502-8)

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