We use an economy-wide model to estimate the impact of a representative climate policy on fuel prices and economic activity, and a partial equilibrium model of the aviation industry to estimate changes in aviation carbon dioxide emissions and operations. Between 2012 and 2050, with reference demand growth benchmarked to ICAO/GIACC (2009) forecasts, we find that aviation emissions increase by 130 per cent. In our policy scenarios, emissions increase by between 103 per cent and 123 per cent. Under the assumptions in our analysis, aviation contributes to climate policy targets by funding emissions reductions in sectors with less costly abatement options.

© 2013 Journal of Transport Economics and Policy

We estimate the economic impacts on US airlines that may arise from the inclusion of aviation in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme from 2012 to 2020. We find that the Scheme would only have a small impact on US airlines and emissions, and that aviation operations would continue to grow. If carriers pass on all additional costs, including the opportunity costs associated with free allowances, to consumers, profits for US carriers will increase. Windfall gains from free allowances may be substantial because, under current allocation rules, airlines would only have to purchase about a third of the required allowances. However, an increase in the proportion of allowances auctioned would reduce windfall gains and profits for US airlines may decline.

Australia’s wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia’s electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia’s energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia’s wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast’s electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it’s intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale.

© 2014 Hallgren et al.

In recent decades, the largest increase of surface air temperature and related climate extremes have occurred in northern Eurasia. This temperature increase and extreme climate change are projected to continue during the 21st century according to climate models. The changing climate is likely to affect land cover and the biogeochemical cycles in the region. These changes in biogeography and biogeochemistry, in turn, will affect how land use evolves in the future as humans attempt to mitigate and adapt to future climate change. Regional land-use changes, however, also depend on pressures imposed by the global economy. Feedbacks from future land-use change will further modify regional and global biogeochemistry and climate. Using a suite of linked biogeography, biogeochemical, economic, and climate models, we explore how climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia influences land-use change and carbon cycling across the globe during the 21st century. We find that, by the end of the 21st century, the vegetation shift due to climate is a more important factor than the climate itself in driving land use change in Northern Eurasia. While climate policy appears to have little influence on the cumulative release of about 20 Pg C from Northern Eurasia over the 21st century, the redistribution of global land use causes the terrestrial biosphere to sequester less carbon (43 Pg C) with implementation of a climate policy than without a policy (65 Pg C). The vegetation shift in Northern Eurasia induced from changing climate and demands of global economic growth significantly affect both regional and global land use and decreases carbon sink activities at both regional and global scales.