Climate Policy

The Federal Aviation Administration's Office of Environment and Energy and PARTNER have developed a simplified climate model (APMT-Impacts Climate) for use in assessing aviation environmental policies. Policy support tools like the APMT-Impacts Climate model use reduced order relationships to estimate how aviation emissions impact welfare through induced changes in temperature on a global scale. While these tools are appropriate for rapidly and efficiently modeling a suite of full-fleet policy options, they have limitations.

Alternative jet fuels hold the promise of energy supply diversification in the face of rising oil prices. In addition, alternative fuels may reduce environmental impact from aviation-related combustion emissions. The focus of Project 28 is on the creation and use of an aviation-specific life-cycle analysis framework to assess the alternative fuel environmental impacts from "well-to-wake", building on existing well-to-tank and tank-to-wake methodologies.

This project aims to increase understanding of the direct and indirect impacts of transportation-related policies, including impacts on land use, fuel use, greenhouse gas emissions, changes in the energy sector, and other economy-wide effects.

The MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM), coupled with MIT/NCAR version of the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 (CAM3) of NCAR’s Community Climate System Model version (CCSM), will be used to assess the local air pollution impacts of 1) emerging vehicle technologies such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and biofuels and 2) air pollution and climate policies, separately and in combination.

The goal of this research is to better understand how changes in global emissions and climate are affecting the distribution, lifetime, and bioavailability of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the Arctic Ocean. POPs travel globally in air and water, are often highly bioaccumulative, and have the ability to cycle among environmental media enabling long-range transport to remote regions such as the Arctic.

This project is developing a model for analyzing potential U.S greenhouse gas policies proposed within the U.S., with a capability to assess impacts on regions, sectors and industries of various combination of mitigation policies and adaptation measures. The effort builds on the existing capability of the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which has been developed by the Program to analyze the global economic consequences of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases.

This project is focused on applying the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) to the assessment of climate-change policy issues. The IGSM is being applied to the investigation of near-term climate policies that are prominent in national and international climate discussions, and to long-term issues of atmospheric stabilization. Effort in these areas involves study of actual and proposed national policies, and proposals for further development of a global regime.

The economic cost of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is an important policy consideration. As public awareness of climate change consequences increase, there is increased political support for greenhouse gas emission controls. However, there are disagreements over the intensity of controls as well as the implementation timeline. A major factor of consideration is the economic cost. Due to the complexity of the climate change issue, many people have chosen to focus on the carbon equivalent quota price as a proxy for the magnitude of cost. While the carbon price is a helpful guide, it provides an incomplete picture of all the distortions and their interactions. This thesis aims to break down the different components of welfare loss in computer general equilibrium (CGE) models, so as to further understand the issue. The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a large-scale computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, simulates trends in global economics and greenhouse gas emissions. Utilizing the EPPA model, I examined the distortions resulting from carbon taxation, domestic taxation, changes in terms of trade, international oil market effect, and international capital flow. This thesis focused on Japan and the European Union, showing that high carbon price does not always correlate with a proportional high percentage welfare loss.
(cont.) The distortion induced by interaction of non-carbon taxation dwarfs that of carbon taxation. As a result, some countries with a high carbon price may experience low national welfare loss relative to other countries with lower carbon price. Finally, I complete the thesis by examining the different policy implications for this detailed understanding of economic cost of climate change policies.

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