Energy Transition

David L. Chandler | MIT News Office 
April 6, 2018

Putting a price on carbon, in the form of a fee or tax on the use of fossil fuels, coupled with returning the generated revenue to the public in one form or another, can be an effective way to curb emissions of greenhouse gases. That’s one of the conclusions of an extensive analysis of several versions of such proposals, carried out by researchers at MIT and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

Restructuring an electricity sector entails a complex realignment of political and economic institutions, which may both delay and distort the achievement of market conditions that are reasonably competitive. In research and planning for policy interventions in power systems under these varied regulatory environments, typical operational models may neglect important areas in which engineering constraints and political realities combining together can substantially change outcomes, leading to poor understanding of underlying causes of inefficiency and to inappropriate recommendations. We develop tractable formulations of a common power systems model used on a daily basis--the unit commitment optimization--which consider important political factors in the Northeast grid region of China. We demonstrate the importance of these interactions on operations and provide a set of options for researchers to explore further pathways for China's ongoing power system reforms. For example, wind integration, a key policy priority, is inhibited by the interaction of institutions limiting short- and long-term sources of flexibilities in inter-provincial trade.

The Paris Agreement makes long-term energy and climate projections particularly important because it calls for a goal that likely requires an energy system that is based on a radically different fuel mix than currently in use. This presents a challenge for energy companies as they try to anticipate the types of energy and fuels that will be required to stay competitive while meeting environmental requirements. A new scenario (called Sky) developed by Shell International examines the challenge of moving to an energy system with net-zero CO2 emissions and gradually eliminate emissions from deforestation by midway through the second half of the century (specifically by the year of 2070). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework, we simulate a 400-member ensemble, reflecting uncertainty in Earth system response of global temperature change associated with the Sky scenario by 2100. We find that for the median climate parameters the global surface temperature increase by 2100 is 1.75°C above the pre-industrial levels with an 85% probability of remaining below 2°C. The geographic distribution of the temperature change shows a stronger warming in Polar regions. If, in addition, there is a significant effort directed toward global reforestation then, with median climate parameters, temperature increase by 2100, is near 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Projections of the pathways that reduce carbon emission to the levels consistent with limiting global average temperature increases to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels often require negative emission technologies like bioelectricity with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). We review the global energy production potential and the ranges of costs for the BECCS technology.  We then represent a version of the technology in the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to see how it competes with other low carbon options under stabilization scenarios. We find that, with a global price on carbon designed to achieve climate stabilization goals, the technology could make a substantial contribution to energy supply and emissions reduction in the second half of the 21st century. The main uncertainties weighing on bioelectricity with carbon capture and storage are biomass availability at large scale, the pace of improvements in carbon capture technologies, the availability and cost of CO2 storage, and social acceptance.  Commercial viability would appear to depend strongly on a policy environment, such as carbon pricing, that would advantage it, given the technology costs we assume. Compared to previous studies, we provide a consistent approach to evaluate all of the components of the technology, from growing biomass to CO2 storage assessment. Our results show that global economic costs and needed carbon prices to hit the stabilization target are substantially lower with the technology available at reasonable costs.

Growing global food demand, climate change and climate policies favoring bioenergy production are expected to increase pressures on water resources around the world. Many analysts predict that water shortages will constrain the ability of farmers to expand irrigated cropland, which would be critical to ramping up production of both food and bioenergy crops. If true, bioenergy production and food consumption would decline amid rising food prices and pressures to convert forests to rain-fed farmland. Now a team of researchers at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has put this prediction to the test.

To assess the likely impacts of future limited water resources on bioenergy production, food consumption and prices, land-use change and the global economy, the MIT researchers have conducted a study that explicitly represents irrigated land and water scarcity. Appearing in the Australian Journal of Agriculture and Resource Economics, the study is the first to include an estimation of how irrigation management and systems may respond to changes in water availability in a global economy-wide model that represents agriculture, energy and land-use change.

The GOP tax reform, now adopted as the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, aimed to cut business taxes to stimulate investment, lower some personal taxes, eliminate deductions and tax credits to help pay for the tax reductions, and reduce the shifting of profits abroad by U.S. companies. Some of these objectives have been achieved, but at the cost of a potentially substantial increase in the fiscal deficit, among other problems. As a result, corrections will be needed in future years.

Many of the Act’s undesirable features reflect its drafters’ inability to come up with sufficient revenue to compensate for the tax reductions. This paper explores a carbon dioxide (CO2) tax as perhaps the only measure that’s consistent with the declared tax-reform principles of the GOP leadership, likely to draw Democratic support, and large enough to compensate for the Act’s revenue-losing provisions. After summarizing the process that led to the Act and its major shortcomings, the researchers—applying the MIT U.S. Regional Energy Policy (USREP) model—show how, when the Act is opened up for repairs, a CO2 tax could help correct its flaws while serving environmental goals.

Achieving the Paris Agreement goals of climate stabilization requires a transformation of energy system over the upcoming decades. Russia, as a fossil fuel producer, will have to adjust its economy to reflect lower export earnings from oil, coal, and natural gas. Using a global energy-economic modeling framework, we will assess the impacts of energy transformation policies and the resulting global market dynamics on Russian economy, including the changes in its sectoral output, energy mix, and GDP.

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