Energy Transition

Use of natural gas and oil as a source of feedstocks

Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of natural gas and oil differ when they are used for combustion or as a feedstock. In addition to the growing demand for feedstocks that are converted into products (such as plastics and fertilizers), climate policies that penalize GHG emissions may incentivize a switch from burning natural gas and oil to their feedstock use.

Using an enhanced version of the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, we examine several scenarios to assess natural gas and oil use as feedstock and find that global feedstock use grows 2-3 times by 2050 relative to 2015 levels.

In a scenario consistent with reaching 2°C goal set by the Paris Agreement, the share of natural gas used as a feedstock grows from about 5% in 2015 to about 15% in 2050 and the share of oil used as a feedstock grows from about 10% in 2015 to about 17% in 2050. In a scenario consistent with reaching 2°C goal set by the Paris Agreement, the share of natural gas used as a feedstock in 2050 is 86% larger than in the no-policy Reference. The corresponding increase in a share of oil used as a feedstock is 40%. USA, Europe, and the Middle East remain as the major regions for feedstock use, but China, India, and Africa grow fast to become major feedstock use centers. 

Future energy: In search of a scenario reflecting current and future pressures and trends

Abstract: Growing societal pressures, technological trends and government and industry actions are moving the world toward decarbonization and away from “business-as-usual." As such, the concept of a single/obvious “business as usual” or “reference” scenario is no longer relevant. Instead, there are multiple plausible futures that should be explored.

We contribute one such scenario that carefully considers emissions-reduction trends and actions that are likely in the future, absent a globally coordinated mitigation effort. We explore the long-term implications for energy, emissions and temperature outcomes if the world continues to address climate change in the way it has so far—through piecemeal actions and growing social and technological pressures. This Growing Pressures scenario results in a central scenario outcome of about 3°C of surface temperature warming, which is higher than the “well below 2°C” level aspired to by the Paris Agreement, but lower than many widely used “no-policy” scenarios.

Ongoing and growing pressures of change, the roots of which are clearly visible today, could deliver a plausible energy transition scenario to near-zero emissions that plays out over the coming century. While a more aggressive transition is clearly required, this finding highlights the need to bring actions forward in time to achieve an improved outcome making use of clearly identifiable policies and technologies.

The electrification of private cars and light trucks—the vast majority of which are now powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs)—will be critical to efforts to keep global warming well below 2°C or 1.5°C, the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. Replacing today’s fleet of gasoline and diesel ICEs with plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery (BEV) electric vehicles (EVs) could practically eliminate emissions from these light-duty vehicles as part of a broader strategy to decarbonize the transportation sector.

Accelerating electrification of private cars, light trucks

According to the United States Energy Information Agency, a boom in shale gas extraction led to a dramatic decline in coal use in the U.S. power sector within a single decade. Between 2007 and 2016, the nation’s coal-fired generation and consumption fell by nearly 40 percent, replaced largely by cheaper natural gas. Substituting this cleaner-burning fuel reduced U.S. carbon dioxide emissions considerably, suggesting to some that the shale gas boom may well reduce these emissions for the long term.

Bridge fuel or bridge too far?
The economics of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) deployment in a 1.5°C or 2°C world

Abstract: Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation are key negative emission technologies suggested in many studies under 2°C or 1.5°C scenarios. However, these large-scale land-based approaches have raised concerns about their economic impacts, particularly their impact on food prices, as well as their environmental impacts. Here we focus on quantifying the potential scale of BECCS and its impact on the economy, taking into account technology and economic considerations, but excluding sustainability and political aspects.

To do so, we represent all major components of BECCS technology in the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model. We find that BECCS could make a substantial contribution to emissions reductions in the second half of the century under 1.5 and 2°C climate stabilization goals, with its deployment driven by revenues from carbon dioxide permits. Results show that global economic costs and the carbon prices needed to hit the stabilization targets are substantially lower with the technology available, and BECCS acts as a true backstop technology at carbon prices around $240 per ton of carbon dioxide. If driven by economics alone, BECCS deployment increases the use of productive land for bioenergy production, causing substantial land use changes. However, the projected impact on commodity prices is limited, with global commodity price indices increasing by less than 5% on average, and up to 15% in selected regions.

While BECCS deployment is likely to be constrained for environmental and/or political reasons, this study shows that the large-scale deployment of BECCS is not detrimental to agricultural commodity prices and could reduce the costs of meeting stabilization targets. Still, it is crucial that policies consider carbon dioxide removal as a complement to drastic carbon dioxide emissions reductions, while establishing a credible accounting system and sustainable limits on BECCS.

The role of synthetic biology in atmospheric greenhouse gas reduction: Prospects and challenges

Abstract: The long atmospheric residence time of CO2 creates an urgent need to add atmospheric carbon drawdown to CO2 regulatory strategies. Synthetic and systems biology (SSB), which enables manipulation of cellular phenotypes, offers a powerful approach to amplifying and adding new possibilities to current land management practices aimed at reducing atmospheric carbon. The participants (in attendance: Christina Agapakis, George Annas, Adam Arkin, George Church, Robert Cook-Deegan, Charles DeLisi, Dan Drell, Sheldon Glashow, Steve Hamburg, Henry Jacoby, Henry Kelly, Mark Kon, Todd Kuiken, Mary Lidstrom, Mike MacCracken, June Medford, Jerry Melillo, Ron Milo, Pilar Ossorio, Ari Patrinos, Keith Paustian, Kristala Jones Prather, Kent Redford, David Resnik, John Reilly, Richard J. Roberts, Daniel Segre, Susan Solomon, Elizabeth Strychalski, Chris Voigt, Dominic Woolf, Stan Wullschleger, and Xiaohan Yang) identified a range of possibilities by which SSB might help reduce greenhouse gas concentrations and which might also contribute to environmental sustainability and adaptation. These include, among other possibilities, engineering plants to convert CO2 produced by respiration into a stable carbonate, designing plants with an increased root-to-shoot ratio, and creating plants with the ability to self-fertilize. A number of serious ecological and societal challenges must, however, be confronted and resolved before any such application can be fully assessed, realized, and deployed.

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