Canadian hydropower resources offer a potentially attractive option for meeting decarbonization targets in the US Northeast region, where there are ambitious climate goals and nearby hydro resources in Quebec. Existing transmission capacity is, however, a limiting factor in expanding hydropower imports to the region.

To examine the value of expanding transmission capacity from Quebec to the Northeast,  we employ an integrated top-down bottom-up modeling framework (USREP-EleMod). This research was part of an Energy Modeling Forum effort, EMF34, with a goal of better characterizing linkages in energy markets across North America. The scenarios we examine exogenously expand transmission capacity by 10, 30, and 50% above existing capacity into the US Northeast (New York/New England), finding the value to the economy of these expansions ranging from $.38-$.49 per kWh imported into New York, and $.30-$.33 per kWh imported into New England by 2050. 

The scenarios include economy-wide emissions goals these states have set for themselves. The carbon limits we impose raise fuel prices more than electricity prices, and as a result, we find greater electrification in the US Northeast region from 2030 onward--a result that one would not see using just an electricity sector model, This demonstrates a main hypothesis of EMF34, that models that looked at more integration across energy markets would give deeper insight than more narrowly focused models.

HIghlights:

    Canadian hydropower imports benefit the US Northeast region in transition to a low-carbon economy
    Transmission capacity expansion is evaluated based on a top-down bottom-up model
    The value to the economy of the expansion is significantly larger than the cost of the electricity itself

Abstract: The Turkish power sector achieved a rapid growth after the 1990s in line with economic growth and even beyond. However, this development was not supported by domestic resources and therefore culminated in a high dependency on imported fossil fuels. Over and above, the governments were slow of the mark in introducing policies for increasing the share of renewable energy. Nevertheless, even late actions of the government, as well as significant decreases in the cost of wind and especially solar technologies, have recently brought the Turkish power sector in a promising state. In this study, a large-scale generation expansion power system model (TR-Power) with a high temporal resolution (hours) is developed for the Turkish power generation sector. Several prospective scenarios (high penetration of renewable resources, limiting constraints on GHG emissions, and changes in subsidy schemes on renewable and local resources) were analyzed for assessing their environmental and economic impacts. The results indicate that a transition to a low-carbon power grid with around half of the electricity demand satisfied by renewable resources over a 25-year period would be possible with annual investments of 4.25 to 7.10 Billion 2019 US$. Moreover, TR-Power indicates that the shadow price of CO₂ emissions in the power sector will be around 13.8 and 34.0 $/per tCO₂ by 2042 under 30% and 40% emission reduction targets relative to the reference scenario.