Forests provide several critical ecosystem services that help to support human society. Alteration of forest infrastructure by changes in land use, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change influence the ability of forests to provide these ecosystem services and their sensitivity to existing and future extreme climate events. Here, we explore how the evolving forest infrastructure of the Midwest and Northeast United States influences carbon sequestration, biomass increment (i.e., change in vegetation carbon), biomass burning associated with fuelwood and slash removal, the creation of wood products, and runoff between 1980 and 2019 within the context of changing environmental conditions and extreme climate events using a coupled modeling and assessment framework.

For the 40-year study period, the region’s forests functioned as a net atmospheric carbon sink of 687 Tg C with similar amounts of carbon sequestered in the Midwest and the Northeast. Most of the carbon has been sequestered in vegetation (+771 Tg C) with more carbon stored in Midwestern trees than in Northeastern trees to provide a larger resource for potential wood products in the future. Runoff from forests has also provided 4,651 billion m³ of water for potential use by humans during the study period with the Northeastern forests providing about 2.4 times more water than the Midwestern forests. Our analyses indicate that climate variability, as particularly influenced by heat waves, has the dominant effect on the ability of forest ecosystems to sequester atmospheric CO₂ to mitigate climate change, create new wood biomass for future fuel and wood products, and provide runoff for potential human use. Forest carbon sequestration and biomass increment appear to be more sensitive to heat waves in the Midwest than the Northeast while forest runoff appears to be more sensitive in the Northeast than the Midwest. Land-use change, driven by expanding suburban areas and cropland abandonment, has enhanced the detrimental heat-wave effects in Midwestern forests over time, but moderated these effects in Northeastern forests.

When developing climate stabilization, energy production and water security policies, it will be important to consider how evolving forest infrastructure modifies ecosystem services and their responses to extreme climate events over time.

Significance: The vast subtropical oceans play a leading role in the global storage of organic carbon into the deep ocean. There, biological production is limited by the availability of surface nutrients due to the large-scale ocean circulation pushing nutrient-rich waters at depth. The transfer of nutrients into the sunlit layer is achieved by fine-scale vertical motions, at the expense of the layers beneath. We show that subsurface layers are substantially replenished by the lateral turbulent transport of nutrients along density surfaces, on 10 to 100 km scales. This nutrient relay, involving both vertical and lateral transport, ultimately fuels biological production and sustains an associated sequestration of carbon in the subtropics.

Abstract: The expansive gyres of the subtropical ocean account for a significant fraction of global organic carbon export from the upper ocean. In the gyre interior, vertical mixing and the heaving of nutrient-rich waters into the euphotic layer sustain local productivity, in turn depleting the layers below. However, the nutrient pathways by which these subeuphotic layers are themselves replenished remain unclear.

Using a global, eddy-permitting simulation of ocean physics and biogeochemistry, we quantify nutrient resupply mechanisms along and across density surfaces, including the contribution of eddy-scale motions that are challenging to observe. We find that mesoscale eddies (10 to 100 km) flux nutrients from the shallow flanks of the gyre into the recirculating interior, through time-varying motions along density surfaces. The subeuphotic layers are ultimately replenished in approximately equal contributions by this mesoscale eddy transport and the remineralization of sinking particles.

The mesoscale eddy resupply is most important in the lower thermocline for the whole subtropical region but is dominant at all depths within the gyre interior. Subtropical gyre productivity may therefore be sustained by a nutrient relay, where the lateral transport resupplies nutrients to the thermocline and allows vertical exchanges to maintain surface biological production and carbon export.

Abstract: Large amounts of carbon and nutrients are delivered to the coastal and pelagic ocean by the Land-Ocean Aquatic Continuum (LOAC). The LOAC refers to the major biogeochemical pathway whereby river and groundwater discharge is connected to coastal systems. Terrestrial loads fluxed through the LOAC system likely play a key role in the carbon cycle of the global ocean. For example, riverine carbon export may be responsible for global-ocean outgassing of roughly 0.45 Pg C yr^-1. While the significance of terrestrial exports is commonly accepted in the community, quantification of these fluxes over seasonal-to-interannual timescales is still lacking. To address this deficiency, we parameterize contemporary terrestrial carbon and nutrient export in the ECCO-Darwin global-ocean biogeochemistry state estimate and evaluate the subsequent sensitivity of air-sea CO₂ fluxes at regional and global scales from 1995 to 2017. We compute daily riverine export by combining the GlobalNEWS2.0 watershed model with point-source freshwater discharge from the JRA55-do atmospheric reanalysis. Additionally, we derive carbon exports from coastal wetlands (i.e., mangroves and marshes) from ecosystem primary production and the associated soil organic carbon. We evaluate our simulated ocean biogeochemistry and air-sea CO₂ fluxes using in-situ and remotely-sensed observations in the coastal ocean. We quantify the impact of terrestrial exports to the global ocean by comparing our new simulation with a baseline simulation that does not include terrestrial carbon and nutrient export. Our study highlights the importance of improving the representation of terrestrial fluxes in global-ocean biogeochemistry models for the accurate simulation of ocean carbon cycling, biogeochemistry, and ecology.

Significance

The vast subtropical oceans play a leading role in the global storage of organic carbon into the deep ocean. There, biological production is limited by the availability of surface nutrients due to the large-scale ocean circulation pushing nutrient-rich waters at depth. The transfer of nutrients into the sunlit layer is achieved by fine-scale vertical motions, at the expense of the layers beneath. We show that subsurface layers are substantially replenished by the lateral turbulent transport of nutrients along density surfaces, on 10 to 100 km scales. This nutrient relay, involving both vertical and lateral transport, ultimately fuels biological production and sustains an associated sequestration of carbon in the subtropics.

Abstract

The expansive gyres of the subtropical ocean account for a significant fraction of global organic carbon export from the upper ocean. In the gyre interior, vertical mixing and the heaving of nutrient-rich waters into the euphotic layer sustain local productivity, in turn depleting the layers below. However, the nutrient pathways by which these subeuphotic layers are themselves replenished remain unclear. Using a global, eddy-permitting simulation of ocean physics and biogeochemistry, we quantify nutrient resupply mechanisms along and across density surfaces, including the contribution of eddy-scale motions that are challenging to observe. We find that mesoscale eddies (10 to 100 km) flux nutrients from the shallow flanks of the gyre into the recirculating interior, through time-varying motions along density surfaces. The subeuphotic layers are ultimately replenished in approximately equal contributions by this mesoscale eddy transport and the remineralization of sinking particles. The mesoscale eddy resupply is most important in the lower thermocline for the whole subtropical region but is dominant at all depths within the gyre interior. Subtropical gyre productivity may therefore be sustained by a nutrient relay, where the lateral transport resupplies nutrients to the thermocline and allows vertical exchanges to maintain surface biological production and carbon export.