Infrastructure & Investment

The vast availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as a potential near-zero greenhouse gas emission technology for meeting future world energy needs while addressing the climate change issue. However, in order to provide even a fraction of the estimated future energy needs, a large-scale deployment of wind turbines (several million) is required. The consequent environmental impacts, and the inherent reliability of such a large-scale usage of intermittent wind power would have to be carefully assessed, in addition to the need to lower the high current unit wind power costs. Our previous study (Wang and Prinn 2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 2053) using a three-dimensional climate model suggested that a large deployment of wind turbines over land to meet about 10% of predicted world energy needs in 2100 could lead to a significant temperature increase in the lower atmosphere over the installed regions. A global-scale perturbation to the general circulation patterns as well as to the cloud and precipitation distribution was also predicted. In the later study reported here, we conducted a set of six additional model simulations using an improved climate model to further address the potential environmental and intermittency issues of large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines for differing installation areas and spatial densities. In contrast to the previous land installation results, the offshore wind turbine installations are found to cause a surface cooling over the installed offshore regions. This cooling is due principally to the enhanced latent heat flux from the sea surface to lower atmosphere, driven by an increase in turbulent mixing caused by the wind turbines which was not entirely offset by the concurrent reduction of mean wind kinetic energy. We found that the perturbation of the large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines to the global climate is relatively small compared to the case of land-based installations. However, the intermittency caused by the significant seasonal wind variations over several major offshore sites is substantial, and demands further options to ensure the reliability of large-scale offshore wind power. The method that we used to simulate the offshore wind turbine effect on the lower atmosphere involved simply increasing the ocean surface drag coefficient. While this method is consistent with several detailed fine-scale simulations of wind turbines, it still needs further study to ensure its validity. New field observations of actual wind turbine arrays are definitely required to provide ultimate validation of the model predictions presented here.

Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a three-dimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using wind turbines to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1 °C over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1 °C is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of wind turbines by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate wind turbines. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure reliability, including backup generation capacity, very long distance power transmission lines, and onsite energy storage, each with specific economic and/or technological challenges.
 

Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled legitimate interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a three-dimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using windmills to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1oC over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1°C is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of windmills by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate windmills. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure reliability, including backup generation capacity, very long distance power transmission lines, and onsite energy storage, each with specific economic and/or technological challenges.

Wind resource in the continental and offshore United States has been reconstructed and characterized using metrics that describe, apart from abundance, its availability, persistence and intermittency. The Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) boundary layer flux data has been used to construct wind profile at 50m, 80m, 100m and 120m turbine hub heights. The wind power density estimates at 50m are qualitatively similar to those in the US wind atlas developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), but quantitatively a class less in some regions, but are within the limits of uncertainty. The wind speeds at 80m were quantitatively and qualitatively close to the NREL wind map. The possible reasons for overestimation by NREL have been discussed. For long tailed distributions like those of the wind power density, the mean is an overestimation and median is suggested for summary representation of the wind resource. The impact of raising the wind turbine hub height on metrics of abundance, persistence, variability and intermittency is analyzed. There is a general increase in availability and abundance of wind resource but the there is an increase in intermittency in terms of level crossing rate in low resource regions. The key aspect of geographical diversification of wind farms to mitigate intermittency - that the wind power generators are statistically independent - is also tested. This condition is found in low resource regions like the east and west coasts. However, in the central US region which has rich resource the condition fails as widespread coherent intermittence in wind power density is found. Thus large regions are synchronized in having wind power or lack thereof. Thus, geographical diversification in this region needs to be planned strategically. The annual distribution of hourly wind power density shows considerable variability and suggests wind floods and droughts that roughly correspond with La-Nina and El-Nino years respectively. The collective behavior of wind farms in seven Independent System Operator (ISO) areas has also been studied. The generation duration curves for each ISO show that there is no aggregated power for some fraction of the time. Aggregation of wind turbines mitigates intermittency to some extent, but each ISO has considerable fraction of time with less than 5% capacity. The hourly wind power time series show benefit of aggregation but the high and low wind events are lumped in time, thus corroborating the result that the intermittency is synchronized. The time series show that there are instances when there is no wind power in most ISOs because of large-scale high pressure systems. An analytical consideration of the collective behavior of aggregated wind turbines shows that the benefit of aggregation saturates beyond ten units. Also, the benefit of aggregation falls rapidly with temporal correlation between the generating units.

Climate change and air pollution are intricately linked. The distinction between greenhouse substances and other air pollutants is resolved at least for the time being in the context of international negotiations on climate policy through the identification of CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 and the per- and hydro- fluorocarbons as substances targeted for control. Many of the traditional air pollutant emissions including for example CO, NMVOCs, NOx, SO2, aerosols, and NH3 also directly or indirectly affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Among both sets of gases are precursors of and contributors to pollutants such as tropopospheric ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas, particulate matter, and other pollutants that affect human health. Fossil fuel combustion, production, or transportation is a significant source for many of these substances. Climate policy can thus affect traditional air pollution or air pollution policy can affect climate. Health effects of acute or chronic exposure to air pollution include increased asthma, lung cancer, heart disease and bronchitis among others. These, in turn, redirect resources in the economy toward medical expenditures or result in lost labor or non-labor time with consequent effects on economic activity, itself producing a potential feedback on emissions levels. Study of these effects ultimately requires a fully coupled earth system model. Toward that end we develop an approach for introducing air pollution health impacts into the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) a coupled economics-chemistry-atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial biosphere model of earth systems including an air pollution model resolving the urban scale. This preliminary examination allows us to consider how climate policy affects air pollution and consequent health effects, and to study the potential impacts of air pollution policy on climate. The novel contribution is the effort to endogenize air pollution impacts within the EPPA model, allowing us to study potential economic effects and feedbacks. We find strong interaction between air pollution and economies, although precise estimates of the effects require further investigation and refined resolution of the urban scale chemistry model.

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