Improving air quality across mainland China is an urgent policy challenge. While much of the problem is linked to China’s broader reliance on coal and other fossil fuels across the energy system, road transportation is an important and growing source of air pollution. Here we use an energy-economic model, embedded in the broader Regional Emissions Air Quality Climate and Health (REACH) modeling framework, to analyze the impacts of implementing vehicle emissions together with a broader economy-wide climate policy on total air pollution and its spatial distribution. We find that full and immediate implementation of existing vehicle emissions standards at China 3/III level or tighter will significantly reduce the contribution of transportation to degraded air quality by 2030. We further show that transportation emissions standards function as an important complement to an economy-wide price on CO₂, which delivers significant co-benefits for air pollution reduction that are concentrated primarily in non-transportation sectors. Going forward, vehicle emissions standards and an economy-wide carbon price form a highly effective coordinated policy package that supports China’s air quality and climate change mitigation goals.

We develop and test a physically based semi-Lagrangian water body temperature model to apply climatological data and thermal pollution from river-based power plants to historical river flow data in order to better understand climate change impacts on surface water temperature and thermal power plant withdrawal allowances. The model is built for rapid assessment and use in Integrated Assessment Models. We first test the standalone model on a 190km river reach, the Delaware River, where we have detailed flow and temperature data. An R² of 0.88 is obtained on hourly data for this initial test. Next, we integrate the standalone temperature model into a series of models—rainfall-runoff model, water demand model, water resource management model, and power plant uptake and release model—for the contiguous USA (CONUS), with about 19,000 segments total. With this system in place, we then validate the standalone water temperature model within the system for 16 river stations throughout the CONUS, where we have measured daily temperature data. The model performs reasonably well with a median R² of 0.88. A variety of climate and emissions scenarios are then applied to the model to test regions of higher vulnerability to river temperature environmental violations, making use of output from two GCMs and six emissions scenarios focusing on projections out to 2050. We find that the two GCMs project significantly different impacts to water temperature, driven largely by the resulting changes in streamflow from the two models. We also find significantly different impacts on the withdrawal allowed by thermal power plants due to environmental regulations. Potential impacts on generation are between +3% and -4% by 2050 for the unconstrained emissions case and +3.5% to -2% for the stringent GHG mitigation policy (where 1% is equivalent to 32 TWh, or about 3 billion USD/year using 2005 electricity prices). We also find that once-through cooling plants are most vulnerable to climate change impacts, with summer impacts ranging from -0.8% to -6% for the unconstrained emissions case and +2.1% to -3.7% for the stringent GHG emissions case.

This paper develops a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model, integrating high-frequency electricity dispatch and trade decisions, to study the effects of electricity transmission infrastructure (TI) expansion and renewable energy (RE) penetration in Europe for gains from trade and carbon dioxide emissions in the power sector. TI can benefit or degrade environmental outcomes, depending on RE penetration: it complements emissions abatement by mitigating dispatch problems associated with volatile and spatially dispersed RE but also promotes higher average generation from low-cost coal if RE production is too low. Against the backdrop of European decarbonization and planned TI expansion, we find that emissions increase for current and targeted year-2020 levels of RE production and decrease for year-2030 targets. Enhanced TI yields sizeable gains from trade that depend positively on RE penetration, without creating large adverse impacts on regional equity.