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We estimate the impact of additional costs imposed on airlines by the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading System (ETS) on tourist arrivals in 26 Caribbean states. At an EU emission allowance price of €10, we find that the policy will, on average, increase return airfares from Europe to the Caribbean by $17 for indirect flights and $21 for direct flights. These price changes reduce region-wide arrivals to the Caribbean from the EU by between 1.4% and 2%, and decrease total arrivals (from all regions) by less than 0.4%. The decrease in total arrivals is the largest for Martinique (1.7%), and relatively large decreases are also predicted for Antigua and Barbuda, Bonaire, Barbados, Curacao, and Suriname. We conclude that the EU ETS will have a moderate impact on visitor arrivals relative to the United Kingdom's Air Passenger Duty (APD) and the European financial crisis.

© 2013 Sage Journals

We estimate the economic impacts on US airlines that may arise from the inclusion of aviation in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme from 2012 to 2020. We find that the Scheme would only have a small impact on US airlines and emissions, and that aviation operations would continue to grow. If carriers pass on all additional costs, including the opportunity costs associated with free allowances, to consumers, profits for US carriers will increase. Windfall gains from free allowances may be substantial because, under current allocation rules, airlines would only have to purchase about a third of the required allowances. However, an increase in the proportion of allowances auctioned would reduce windfall gains and profits for US airlines may decline.

Environmental negotiations and policy decisions take place at the science–policy interface. While this is well known in academic literature, it is often difficult to convey how science and policy interact to students in environmental studies and sciences courses. We argue that negotiation simulations, as an experiential learning tool, are one effective way to teach students about how science and policy interact in decision-making. We developed a negotiation simulation, called the Mercury Game, based on the global mercury treaty negotiations. To evaluate the game, we conducted surveys before and after the game was played in university classrooms across North America. For science students, the simulation communicates how politics and economics affect environmental negotiations. For environmental studies and policy students, the mercury simulation demonstrates how scientific uncertainty can affect decision-making. Using the mercury game as an education tool allows students to learn about complex interactions between science and society and develop communication skills.

Between 2005 and 2012, U.S. natural gas production from ultra-low permeability hydrocarbon-prone mud rock formations, often referred to as the “shale resource”, increased 20-fold to more than 570 Mm3 per day, and now accounts for ≈33% of total U.S. gas output. These developments have had a profound impact on the U.S. energy sector. Despite it’s rapid rise, the exploitation of the shale resource is still in it nascency, and knowledge of the precise production mechanisms remains limited. A consequence of this is that the accurate economic characterization of the resource remains difficult. This paper examines spatial and temporal trends in the productivity of contemporary horizontal, hydraulically fractured wells within and between the major U.S. shale plays.

© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around ‘climate response functions’ (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to ‘step’ changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

© 2014 the authors.

We study the role of the ocean in setting the patterns and timescale of the transient response of the climate to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. A novel framework is set out which involves integration of an ocean-only model in which the anthropogenic temperature signal is forced from the surface by anomalous downwelling heat fluxes and damped at a rate controlled by a ‘climate feedback’ parameter. We observe a broad correspondence between the evolution of the anthropogenic temperature (Tanthro) in our simplified ocean-only model and that of coupled climate models perturbed by a quadrupling of CO2. This suggests that many of the mechanisms at work in fully coupled models are captured by our idealized ocean-only system. The framework allows us to probe the role of the ocean in delaying warming signals in the Southern Ocean and in the northern North Atlantic, and in amplifying the warming signal in the Arctic. By comparing active and passive temperature-like tracers we assess the degree to which changes in ocean circulation play a role in setting the distribution and evolution of Tanthro. The background ocean circulation strongly influences the largescale patterns of ocean heat uptake and storage, such that Tanthro is governed by an advection/diffusion equation and weakly damped to the atmosphere at a rate set by climate feedbacks. Where warming is sufficiently small, for example in the Southern Ocean, changes in ocean circulation play a secondary role. In other regions, most noticeably in the North Atlantic, changes in ocean circulation induced by Tanthro are central in shaping the response.

© 2014 the authors.

Australia’s wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia’s electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia’s energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia’s wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast’s electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it’s intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale.

© 2014 Hallgren et al.

This study investigates the responses of the direct radiative effect of light absorbing and scattering carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols on cloudiness and associated radiative fluxes using an interactive aerosol-climate model coupled with a slab ocean model. We find that without including the impact of aerosols on cloud microphysics in the model (indirect effect), the direct radiative effect of aerosols alone can cause a change in cloud coverage and thus in cloud flux change which is consistent with several previous studies. More notably, our result indicates that the direct radiative effect of absorbing aerosols can cause changes in both low-level and high-level clouds with opposite signs. As a result, the global mean cloud radiation response to absorbing aerosols has a rather small value. The change of cloud solar radiative response (all-sky effect minus clear-sky effect) at the top of the atmosphere due to the existence of direct radiative effect of scattering, absorbing, and both types of aerosols is 0.72, 0.08, and 0.81 Wm−2, respectively, all are comparable in quantity to the current estimation of aerosol direct radiative forcing. The cloud response due to the longwave radiative effect is 0.09, 0.18, and 0.27 Wm−2, respectively. The global means of the radiative flux and cloud radiative responses appear to be linearly additive; however, this is definitely not the case for the zonal mean or at the regional scale.

© 2014 American Geophysical Union.

We explore short- and long-term implications of several energy scenarios of China’s role in efforts to mitigate global climate risk. The focus is on the impacts on China’s energy system and GDP growth, and on global climate indicators such as greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, and global temperature change. We employ the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework and its economic component, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We demonstrate that China’s commitments for 2020, made during the UN climate meetings in Copenhagen and Cancun, are reachable at very modest cost. Alternative actions by China in the next 10 years do not yield any substantial changes in GHG concentrations or temperature due to inertia in the climate system. Consideration of the longer-term climate implications of the Copenhagen-type of commitments requires an assumption about policies after 2020, and the effects differ drastically depending on the case. Meeting a 2°C target is problematic unless radical GHG emission reductions are assumed in the short-term. Participation or non-participation of China in global climate architecture can lead by 2100 to a 200–280 ppm difference in atmospheric GHG concentration, which can result in a 1.1°C to 1.3°C change by the end of the century. We conclude that it is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies, and alternative actions lead to substantial differences in climate, energy, and economic outcomes. Potential channels for engaging China can be air pollution control and involvement in sectoral trading with established emissions trading systems in developed countries.

In recent decades, the largest increase of surface air temperature and related climate extremes have occurred in northern Eurasia. This temperature increase and extreme climate change are projected to continue during the 21st century according to climate models. The changing climate is likely to affect land cover and the biogeochemical cycles in the region. These changes in biogeography and biogeochemistry, in turn, will affect how land use evolves in the future as humans attempt to mitigate and adapt to future climate change. Regional land-use changes, however, also depend on pressures imposed by the global economy. Feedbacks from future land-use change will further modify regional and global biogeochemistry and climate. Using a suite of linked biogeography, biogeochemical, economic, and climate models, we explore how climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia influences land-use change and carbon cycling across the globe during the 21st century. We find that, by the end of the 21st century, the vegetation shift due to climate is a more important factor than the climate itself in driving land use change in Northern Eurasia. While climate policy appears to have little influence on the cumulative release of about 20 Pg C from Northern Eurasia over the 21st century, the redistribution of global land use causes the terrestrial biosphere to sequester less carbon (43 Pg C) with implementation of a climate policy than without a policy (65 Pg C). The vegetation shift in Northern Eurasia induced from changing climate and demands of global economic growth significantly affect both regional and global land use and decreases carbon sink activities at both regional and global scales.

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