Climate Policy

China is currently attempting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase natural gas consumption as a part of broader national strategies to reduce the air pollution impacts of the nation’s energy system. To assess the scenarios of natural gas development up to 2050, we employ a global energy-economic model—the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. The results show that a cap-and-trade policy will enable China to achieve its climate mitigation goals, but will also reduce natural gas consumption. An integrated policy that uses a part of the carbon revenue obtained from the cap-and-trade system to subsidize natural gas use promotes natural gas consumption, resulting in a further reduction in coal use relative to the cap-and-trade policy case. The integrated policy has a very moderate welfare cost; however, it reduces air pollution and allows China to achieve both the climate objective and the natural gas promotion objective.

This project quantifies the contribution of newly-enacted Chinese domestic policies to control coal use, and estimates changes in mercury deposition and ambient air quality in China and the greater Asian region. Switching from coal to cleaner sources of energy has the potential to reduce precursors to ozone and particulate matter as well as mercury emissions, but leaves emissions of other precursors unaddressed. To study these dynamics, this project undertakes a combination of empirical analysis and application of advanced modeling techniques.

MIT’s contribution to this collaborative effort will be to investigate future changes in regional air pollution characteristics due to technological and societal changes. The researchers will quantify the future implications of technologies and efficiency improvements in the energy and transportation sectors on regional differences in air pollution impacts. As a case study, they’ll assess the environmental and health benefits of choices in state and regional carbon policy implementation relevant to recently proposed carbon dioxide emission reductions from the energy sector.

A need for a low-carbon world has added a new challenging dimension for long-term energy scenarios development. In addition to the traditional factors like technological progress and demographic, economic, political and institutional considerations, there is another aspect of modern energy forecasts related to the coverage, timing and stringency of policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. Modern tools for energy scenario development provide a good basis for estimates of the required changes in the energy system to achieve certain climate and environmental targets. While current scenarios show that a move to a low- carbon energy future requires a drastic change in energy investment and the resulting mix in energy technologies, the exact technology mix, paths to the needed mix, price and cost projections should be treated with a great degree of caution. The scenarios do not provide exact predictions, but they can be used as a qualitative analysis of decision-making risks associated with different pathways. If history is any guide, energy scenarios overestimate the extent to which the future will look like the recent past. As future costs and the resulting technology mixes are uncertain, a wise government policy is to target emissions reductions from any source, rather than focus on boosting certain kinds of low-carbon energy.

High-profile environmental summits like the recent Paris climate conference (COP 21) offer an opportunity to incorporate real-world, timely issues into teaching and learning about global environmental governance. Using COP 21 as an example, this Forum article summarizes the ways that contemporary environmental summits can be incorporated into university-level education, providing content and context to help address the challenges of interdisciplinary sustainability education. Faculty members have incorporated COP-21-related content in ways ranging from traditional lectures and discussions to field trips, which have contributed to a broad range of course content and learning goals. However, the challenges of including environmental summits in educational settings include knowledge-based, normative, and structural barriers. While environmental summits can be an effective way to incorporate knowledge of global environmental governance into interdisciplinary education, more resources, experimentation, and extensions beyond climate change are needed.

With the eyes of the world on Paris in December 2015, the eyes of students were among them. For those of us who teach about global environmental politics, this presented both a challenge and an opportunity. Environmental summits offer high-profile examples of how cooperation and conflict about ways to address environmental challenges happen in real-world settings. The impact of high-profile events like COP 21 extends well beyond the academic community that traditionally studies environmental governance.

While experts in global environmental politics are often well-acquainted with the role and importance of summits, the issues addressed at summits are relevant to a much broader community of scholarship. Addressing large-scale, complex global environmental and sustainability problems like climate change requires mobilizing a broad range of expertise from across disciplines (Holdren 2008), including perspectives on global environmental governance. Future researchers and practitioners in a variety of disciplines need training and expertise that prepare them to integrate and apply different types of knowledge to real-world problems. Here, I examine whether environmental summits such as COP 21 can provide content and context to help address this interdisciplinary challenge in sustainability education. Drawing on my own experience incorporating environmental negotiations in classroom education, and on insights from colleagues through an online survey and personal interviews, I reflect on the ways in which faculty members at universities engaged with COP 21, lessons learned, and challenges ahead. I focus on university-level classroom settings (as opposed to educational activities for K–12 students, the general public, or education in other forms than traditional classes) in a broad range of disciplines. First, I summarize the varying ways in which faculty can incorporate environmental summits into education, and assess how this live, real-world content can affect educational outcomes. I then identify challenges and roadblocks to teaching and learning from summits in interdisciplinary settings, including knowledge-based, normative, and structural barriers. Finally, I conclude by recommending concrete ways forward for improved outcomes when incorporating environmental summits in multidisciplinary coursework.

A recent UN climate agreement has the potential to shift global energy consumption from a mix dominated by fossil fuels to one driven by low-carbon technologies. It is clear that if this happens, fossil-fuel-producing countries will have to adjust their economies to reflect lower export earnings from oil, coal, and natural gas. The rise of renewable energy may also create new centers of geopolitical power. As renewable resources become widely distributed, supply-side geopolitics are expected to be less influential than in the fossil-fuel era. Instead of focusing on just two major resources, oil and natural gas, low-carbon energy geopolitics may depend on many additional factors, such as access to technology, power lines, rare earth materials, patents, storage, and dispatch, not to mention unpredictable government policies. Despite uncertainty, there is no question that the balance of power in energy geopolitics is shifting from fossil-fuel owners to countries that are developing low-carbon solutions.

Fuel economy standards for new light-duty passenger vehicles have recently been adopted or tightened in many nations. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we analyse the combined effect of existing and accelerated national and regional fuel economy standards on demand for petroleum-based fuels, CO2 emissions, and economic cost, and compare the results to a carbon pricing scenario with identical emissions reductions. We find that fuel economy standards are less cost-effective than a carbon price, with year-on-year consumption loss rising to 10 per cent of global GDP in 2050 under fuel economy standards, compared with 6 per cent under carbon pricing.

© 2015 JTEP

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