The Future of Natural Gas in China: Effects of Pricing Reform and Climate Policy

Joint Program Report
 • China Energy & Climate Project
The Future of Natural Gas in China: Effects of Pricing Reform and Climate Policy
Zhang, D. and S. Paltsev (2016)
Joint Program Report Series, 28 p.

Report 294 [Download]

Abstract/Summary:

China is currently attempting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase natural gas consumption as a part of broader national strategies to reduce the air pollution impacts of the nation’s energy system. To assess the scenarios of natural gas development up to 2050, we employ a global energy-economic model—the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. The results show that a cap-and-trade policy will enable China to achieve its climate mitigation goals, but will also reduce natural gas consumption. An integrated policy that uses a part of the carbon revenue obtained from the cap-and-trade system to subsidize natural gas use promotes natural gas consumption, resulting in a further reduction in coal use relative to the cap-and-trade policy case. The integrated policy has a very moderate welfare cost; however, it reduces air pollution and allows China to achieve both the climate objective and the natural gas promotion objective.

Citation:

Zhang, D. and S. Paltsev (2016): The Future of Natural Gas in China: Effects of Pricing Reform and Climate Policy. Joint Program Report Series Report 294, 28 p. (http://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/16334)
  • Joint Program Report
China Project
The Future of Natural Gas in China: Effects of Pricing Reform and Climate Policy

Zhang, D. and S. Paltsev

Report 

294
28 p.
2016

Abstract/Summary: 

China is currently attempting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase natural gas consumption as a part of broader national strategies to reduce the air pollution impacts of the nation’s energy system. To assess the scenarios of natural gas development up to 2050, we employ a global energy-economic model—the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. The results show that a cap-and-trade policy will enable China to achieve its climate mitigation goals, but will also reduce natural gas consumption. An integrated policy that uses a part of the carbon revenue obtained from the cap-and-trade system to subsidize natural gas use promotes natural gas consumption, resulting in a further reduction in coal use relative to the cap-and-trade policy case. The integrated policy has a very moderate welfare cost; however, it reduces air pollution and allows China to achieve both the climate objective and the natural gas promotion objective.

Supersedes: 

The Future of Natural Gas in China: Effects of Pricing Reform and Climate Policy