The Future of Natural Gas in China: Effects of Pricing Reform and Climate Policy

Joint Program Reprint • Journal Article
 • China Energy & Climate Project
The Future of Natural Gas in China: Effects of Pricing Reform and Climate Policy
Zhang, D. and S. Paltsev (2016)
Climate Change Economics, 7(4): 1650012

Reprint 2016-19 [Download]

Abstract/Summary:

China is currently attempting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase natural gas consumption as a part of broader national strategies to reduce the air pollution impacts of the nation’s energy system. To assess the scenarios of natural gas development up to 2050, we employ a global energy-economic model — the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. The results show that a cap-and-trade policy will enable China to achieve its climate mitigation goals, but will also reduce natural gas consumption. An integrated policy that uses a part of the carbon revenue obtained from the cap-and-trade system to subsidize natural gas use promotes natural gas consumption, resulting in a further reduction in coal use relative to the cap-and-trade policy case. The integrated policy has a very moderate welfare cost; however, it reduces air pollution and allows China to achieve both the climate objective and the natural gas promotion objective.

Citation:

Zhang, D. and S. Paltsev (2016): The Future of Natural Gas in China: Effects of Pricing Reform and Climate Policy. Climate Change Economics, 7(4): 1650012 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S2010007816500123)
  • Joint Program Reprint
  • Journal Article
China Project
The Future of Natural Gas in China: Effects of Pricing Reform and Climate Policy

Zhang, D. and S. Paltsev

2016-19
7(4): 1650012
2016

Abstract/Summary: 

China is currently attempting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase natural gas consumption as a part of broader national strategies to reduce the air pollution impacts of the nation’s energy system. To assess the scenarios of natural gas development up to 2050, we employ a global energy-economic model — the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. The results show that a cap-and-trade policy will enable China to achieve its climate mitigation goals, but will also reduce natural gas consumption. An integrated policy that uses a part of the carbon revenue obtained from the cap-and-trade system to subsidize natural gas use promotes natural gas consumption, resulting in a further reduction in coal use relative to the cap-and-trade policy case. The integrated policy has a very moderate welfare cost; however, it reduces air pollution and allows China to achieve both the climate objective and the natural gas promotion objective.

Supersedes: 

The Future of Natural Gas in China: Effects of Pricing Reform and Climate Policy