We present a systematic study of the differences generated by coupling the same ecological–biogeochemical model to a 1°, coarse-resolution, and 1∕6°, eddy-permitting, global ocean circulation model to (a) biogeochemistry (e.g., primary production) and (b) phytoplankton community structure. Surprisingly, we find that the modeled phytoplankton community is largely unchanged, with the same phenotypes dominating in both cases. Conversely, there are large regional and seasonal variations in primary production, phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. In the subtropics, mixed layer depths (MLDs) are, on average, deeper in the eddy-permitting model, resulting in higher nutrient supply driving increases in primary production and phytoplankton biomass. In the higher latitudes, differences in winter mixed layer depths, the timing of the onset of the spring bloom and vertical nutrient supply result in lower primary production in the eddy-permitting model. Counterintuitively, this does not drive a decrease in phytoplankton biomass but results in lower zooplankton biomass. We explain these similarities and differences in the model using the framework of resource competition theory, and find that they are the consequence of changes in the regional and seasonal nutrient supply and light environment, mediated by differences in the modeled mixed layer depths. Although previous work has suggested that complex models may respond chaotically and unpredictably to changes in forcing, we find that our model responds in a predictable way to different ocean circulation forcing, despite its complexity. The use of frameworks, such as resource competition theory, provides a tractable way to explore the differences and similarities that occur. As this model has many similarities to other widely used biogeochemical models that also resolve multiple phytoplankton phenotypes, this study provides important insights into how the results of running these models under different physical conditions might be more easily understood.

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Diatoms sustain the marine food web and contribute to the export of carbon from the surface ocean to depth. They account for about 40% of marine primary productivity and particulate carbon exported to depth as part of the biological pump. Diatoms have long been known to be abundant in turbulent, nutrient-rich waters, but observations and simulations indicate that they are dominant also in meso- and submesoscale structures such as fronts and filaments, and in the deep chlorophyll maximum. Diatoms vary widely in size, morphology and elemental composition, all of which control the quality, quantity and sinking speed of biogenic matter to depth. In particular, their silica shells provide ballast to marine snow and faecal pellets, and can help transport carbon to both the mesopelagic layer and deep ocean. Herein we show that the extent to which diatoms contribute to the export of carbon varies by diatom type, with carbon transfer modulated by the Si/C ratio of diatom cells, the thickness of the shells and their life strategies; for instance, the tendency to form aggregates or resting spores. Model simulations project a decline in the contribution of diatoms to primary production everywhere outside of the Southern Ocean. We argue that we need to understand changes in diatom diversity, life cycle and plankton interactions in a warmer and more acidic ocean in much more detail to fully assess any changes in their contribution to the biological pump.