Earth Systems

Long-term assessment of likely regional and local climate impacts is critical to enabling municipalities, businesses and regional economies to prepare for potentially damaging and costly effects of climate change—from prolonged droughts to more frequent and intense extreme events such as major storms and heatwaves. But the tools most commonly used to project future climate impacts, Earth-system models (ESMs), are not up to the task. ESMs are too computationally time-consuming and expensive to run at sufficient resolution to provide the needed local and regional detail.

We present new probabilistic estimates of model parameters in the MIT Earth System Model using more recent data and an updated method. Model output is compared to observed climate change to determine which sets of model parameters best simulate the past. In response to increasing surface temperatures and accelerated heat storage in the ocean, our estimates of climate sensitivity and ocean diffusivity are higher. Using a new interpolation algorithm results in smoother probability distributions.

Drought, one of the most destructive natural disasters is projected by numerous studies to become more severe and widespread under climate change. These water limitations will have profound effects on terrestrial systems across the globe. Yet, most of the existing drought monitoring indices are based on drought stress derived from environmental conditions rather than ecosystem responses. Here, we propose using a new approach, the Normalized Ecosystem Drought Index (NEDI), coupled with modified Variable Interval Time Averaging (VITA) method, to quantify drought severity according to ecosystem transitional patterns with water availability. The method is inspired by Sprengel’s and Liebig’s Law of the Minimum for plant nutrition. Eddy covariance measurements from 60 AmeriFlux sites that cross 8 International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP) vegetation types were used to validate the use of NEDI coupled to VITA. The results show that NEDI can reasonably depict both drought stress posed by the environment and drought responses presented by various ecosystems. Water availability becomes a dominant limiting factor for ecosystem evapotranspiration when NEDI falls below zero, and normalized evapotranspiration strength generally decreases with decreasing NEDI under this regime. The widely used self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have difficulty capturing ecosystem responses to water availability, although they can reasonably represent drought conditions detected in the environment. The normalization feature employed in NEDI makes it feasible to compare drought severity over different regions, seasons and vegetation types. The new drought index also provides a valuable tool for irrigation and water distribution management practices which may enhance water conservation efforts as drought conditions become more prevalent.

While the most devastating and costly impacts of climate change occur at regional and local scales, Earth System Models (ESMs), which simulate the climate, are too computationally time-consuming and expensive to run at sufficient resolution to provide this level of detail. But assessment of regional and local climate impacts is critical to enabling municipalities, businesses and regional economies to prepare for the effects of a changing climate—including the possibility of more frequent and intense extreme events such as major storms and heatwaves. To that end, this study uses a regional climate model to downscale middle and end-of-century climate projections of an ESM under a high-impact emissions scenario to a horizontal resolution of three kilometers. The resulting high-resolution climate projections consist of more than 200 climate variables at hourly frequency. This allows for analysis of changes in temperature, precipitation and other climate variables within a single 24-hour period. The aim of these projections is to support further assessments of climate change impacts and sustainability studies in the region.

 

When it comes to global change, agriculture cuts both ways. Subject to the vicissitudes of global climate change, population and economic growth, the cultivation of crops and livestock alters atmospheric concentrations of planet-warming greenhouse gases and also contributes to pollution of freshwater and coastal areas. Assessing the risks to and from the agriculture sector—and identifying opportunities for the sector to thrive amid global change—is thus both urgent and essential.

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