High Resolution Climate Projections for the Northeastern United States using Dynamical Downscaling at Convection Permitting Scales

Journal Article
High Resolution Climate Projections for the Northeastern United States using Dynamical Downscaling at Convection Permitting Scales
Komurcu, M., K.A. Emanuel, M. Huber and R.P. Acosta (2018)
Earth and Space Science, online first (doi: 10.1029/2018EA000426)

Abstract/Summary:

While the most devastating and costly impacts of climate change occur at regional and local scales, Earth System Models (ESMs), which simulate the climate, are too computationally time-consuming and expensive to run at sufficient resolution to provide this level of detail. But assessment of regional and local climate impacts is critical to enabling municipalities, businesses and regional economies to prepare for the effects of a changing climate—including the possibility of more frequent and intense extreme events such as major storms and heatwaves. To that end, this study uses a regional climate model to downscale middle and end-of-century climate projections of an ESM under a high-impact emissions scenario to a horizontal resolution of three kilometers. The resulting high-resolution climate projections consist of more than 200 climate variables at hourly frequency. This allows for analysis of changes in temperature, precipitation and other climate variables within a single 24-hour period. The aim of these projections is to support further assessments of climate change impacts and sustainability studies in the region.

 

Citation:

Komurcu, M., K.A. Emanuel, M. Huber and R.P. Acosta (2018): High Resolution Climate Projections for the Northeastern United States using Dynamical Downscaling at Convection Permitting Scales. Earth and Space Science, online first (doi: 10.1029/2018EA000426) (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018EA000426)
  • Journal Article
High Resolution Climate Projections for the Northeastern United States using Dynamical Downscaling at Convection Permitting Scales

Komurcu, M., K.A. Emanuel, M. Huber and R.P. Acosta

online first (doi: 10.1029/2018EA000426)
2018

Abstract/Summary: 

While the most devastating and costly impacts of climate change occur at regional and local scales, Earth System Models (ESMs), which simulate the climate, are too computationally time-consuming and expensive to run at sufficient resolution to provide this level of detail. But assessment of regional and local climate impacts is critical to enabling municipalities, businesses and regional economies to prepare for the effects of a changing climate—including the possibility of more frequent and intense extreme events such as major storms and heatwaves. To that end, this study uses a regional climate model to downscale middle and end-of-century climate projections of an ESM under a high-impact emissions scenario to a horizontal resolution of three kilometers. The resulting high-resolution climate projections consist of more than 200 climate variables at hourly frequency. This allows for analysis of changes in temperature, precipitation and other climate variables within a single 24-hour period. The aim of these projections is to support further assessments of climate change impacts and sustainability studies in the region.

 

Posted to public: 

Wednesday, November 28, 2018 - 16:35