JP

Analyses of Mexico City Surfaces Properties Using MODIS and Sun-photometer Data During MCMA-2006/MILAGRO Campaign

Monitoring the air quality in megacities around the world and understanding the impact of the emitted pollutants on the local and global climate is a challenge for the scientific community. The air quality monitoring system in megacities has been based almost exclusively on ground-based station networks. Satellites can be used as a complementary tool to the ground-based stations by providing in a systematic way aerosol property with a higher spatial resolution than the continuous ground-based stations. With the growing concern over aerosol particle pollution in megacities, interest in the higher resolution ô data from satellite retrievals is increasing. However, to achieve a higher spatial resolution from the MODIS instrument, it is essential to have more accurate information on the surface reflectance and aerosol optical properties. The heterogeneity of the surface cover in an urban environment only increases the uncertainties in the estimation of the surface reflectance and therefore aerosol optical depth. In this work we perform an analysis of the surface reflectance specifically for the Mexico City urban area. We also present the improvement that the new estimation can provide for the ô retrievals over the region. We performed this analyses based on an unprecedented measurement of ô from a network of sun photometers deployed in Mexico City during the MILAGRO Campaign experiment in 2006. The Milagro (Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations) campaign of air pollutant measurements was carried out during the month of March 2006 in Mexico City. It has four main components, this work is part of the MCMA-2006 (Mexico City Metropolitan Area - 2006) led by the Molina Center on Energy and the Environment.

Analysis of Climate Policy Targets Under Uncertainty

Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of centuryscale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model.

© 2012 Springer

Analysis of CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel in Korea: 1961-1994

This study analyzes the trend of CO2 emissions from energy (especially fossil-fuel) consumption in Korea to better understand the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in rapidly growing Asian economies. The study spans the period 1961-94, during which Korea experienced dramatic changes in energy consumption stemming from rapid economic development. Korea is a particularly interesting example, as it typifies the export-led industrialization believed likely to be repeated elsewhere in East Asia. The study explores the relationship between national output and total CO2 emissions by analyzing CO2 intensity (defined as the ratio of CO2 emissions to national output) using the Divisia decomposition analytical method, a useful tool for quantifying factors contributing to changes in a variable of interest.

Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

© the authors 2015

Analysis of global atmospheric and terrestrial hydrological budget using merged satellite data sets

One of the main objectives in NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) is to assess our water cycle observational capabilities and promote the development of an experimental global observation system. As part of the integrating auspice of NEWS, efforts have been made to compile the state-of-the-art satellite-based data sets for the global atmospheric and terrestrial hydrological budget analyses. The NEWS Water-cycle integration and Analysis (WIA) has focused its initial efforts on combining precipitation, evaporation, total precipitable water change, and terrestrial water storage changes to evaluate their consistency in global scale water budgets, assess their spatial and temporal variations, and develop research and analysis toward improved observational capabilities. In this study, our global scale water budget analyses consider the more recently developed satellite- based products, which are limited in time (i.e. span less than a decade) and space (most cover from 50S to 50N). Wherever possible, rigorous estimates of sampling error/uncertainty for all water-cycle variables are provided for a more robust quantification of the consistency in these budget terms. The preliminary results indicate that there exist notable systematic differences in the monthly water export time series, which is mainly attributed to the use of various precipitation data sets. Nevertheless, all precipitation data sets convey a consistent depiction of overall evaporation excess for the 50S to 50N region, implying a net export of water vapor to higher latitudes. As far as global annual mean precipitation rates are concerned, most of the discrepancy stems from differences over the ocean. We also compare these budget and residual estimates to reanalyses products (e.g. NCEP-NCAR, NASA, and ECMWF) and coupled GCM simulations from the IPCC AR4 archive. Through such cross-comparison exercises, we highlight consistencies and discrepancies between model estimates and satellite observations to not only increase confidence in these products, but also to provide insights on the regions where the continued evaluation, future model improvement, in-situ networks, field campaigns, and (potential) experimental satellite missions should emphasize.

Analysis of Post-Kyoto CO2 Emissions Trading Using Marginal Abatement Curves

Marginal abatement curves (MACs) are often used heuristically to demonstrate the advantages of emissions trading. In this paper, the authors derive MACs from EPPA, the MIT Joint Program's computable general equilibrium model of global economic activity, energy use and CO2 emissions, to analyze the benefits of emissions trading in achieving the emission reduction targets implied by the Kyoto Protocol. The magnitude and distribution of the gains from emissions trading are examined for both an Annex B market and for full global trading, as well as the effects of import limitations, non-competitive behavior, and less than fully efficient supply. In general, trading benefits all parties at least some, and from a global standpoint, the gains from trading are greater, the wider and less constrained is the market. The distribution of the gains from trading is, however, highly skewed in favor of those who would face the highest costs in the absence of emissions trading.

Analysis of Strategies of Companies Under Carbon Constraint: Relationship Between Profit Structure of Companies and Carbon/Fuel Price Uncertainty

This paper examines the relationship between future carbon prices and the expected profit of companies by case studies with model companies. As the future carbon price will vary significantly in accordance with the political and economic situation, a specified probability density profile for the carbon price in the future has been assumed in this paper and the expected profits of the model company have been calculated on the basis of this profile. A power company has been selected as the model company representing a typical instance of a large-scale emitter of CO2. In the case of a single-fuel using company, it has been established that the influence on corporate profits can be assessed quantitatively by determining the profit break-even line with the carbon price as the parameter using the company's carbon emission intensity and its operating profit per unit of production output. For multi-fueled companies, it is shown that the future optimum fuel mix is determined not only by the carbon price but also by the operating profit ratio for the fuels concerned. These studies have thus confirmed that corporate profits are governed by the ratio of the operating profit levels achieved per unit of production output for the different fuels and the carbon price.

Analysis of the Bush Proposal to reduce the SO2 cap

On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced a Clear Skies Initiative that
proposes, among other things, to reduce the existing cap on total SO2 emissions
from approximately 8.9 million tons under the existing provisions of Title IV of the
1990 Clean Air Act Amendments to 4.5 million tons starting in 2010 and to 3.0
million tons starting in 2018. The proposed reductions in the SO2 cap are similar
to that facing the 263 generating units that were mandated to be subject to
Phase I under Title IV and which occasioned a significant amount of early overcontrol
and consequent banking of a llowances for later use. If enacted, there is
every reason to believe that electric utilities would similarly engage in banking
behavior prior to the reductions in the cap. Accordingly, any evaluation of the
costs and economic effects of this proposal must make some assumption about
banking.

The first section of this paper briefly describes banking and summarizes the
grounds for concluding that banking behavior under Title IV has been largely
rational, and therefore nearly optimal. This conclusion is the subject of another
paper now being written by Juan Pablo Montero and myself and the most that
can be done here is to adumbrate the argument. In the following section, the
simple model that closely tracks observed banking behavior under Title IV is
used to simulate the response to the proposed further reductions in the SO2 cap.
The results reported concern marginal and total costs of abatement, emission
levels, allowance prices, and the value of the existing endowment of allowances.
This section is then following by one presenting a sensitivity analysis in which the
three principal uncertainties—the timing and levels of the reduced caps, the
discount rate, and the predicted rate of growth in counterfactual emissions—are
varied; and a final section concludes.

Analysis of the Coal Sector Under Carbon Constraints

As an input to the MIT study of The Future of Coal, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model was applied to an assessment of the fate of the coal industry under various scenarios of greenhouse gas mitigation and alternative assumptions about nuclear power growth and the future price of natural gas. A main determinant of the future of coal is the crucial role in climate policy of the application of carbon capture and storage (CCS) to coal-electric generation. Early applications of the EPPA model to studies of coal under climate policy revealed the need for an improved representation of load dispatch in the representation of the electric sector. In this paper we discuss the method applied to represent load dispatch in the electric sector of this model, and present several scenarios of coal use developed for The Future of Coal study but expanding the national coverage beyond the U.S. and China. We focus on the role of CSS technologies and explore an expansion of the time horizon to 2100.
© Elsevier

Supersedes Report 158

Analysis of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Tax Proposals

The U.S. Congress is considering a set of bills designed to limit the nation's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Several of these proposals call for a cap-and-trade system; others propose an emissions tax. This paper complements the analysis by Paltsev et al. (2007) of cap-and-trade bills and applies the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to carry out an analysis of the tax proposals. Several lessons emerge from this analysis. First, a low starting tax rate combined with a low rate of growth in the tax rate will not reduce emissions significantly. Second, the costs of GHG reductions are reduced with the inclusion of non-CO2 gases in the carbon tax scheme. The costs of the Larson plan, for example, fall by 20% with inclusion of the other GHGs. Third, welfare costs of the policies can be affected by the rate of growth of the tax, even after controlling for cumulative emissions. Fourth, a carbon tax — like any form of carbon pricing — is regressive. However, general equilibrium considerations suggest that the short-run measured regressivity may be overstated. A portion of the carbon tax is passed back to workers, owners of equity, and resource owners. To the extent that relatively wealthy resource and equity owners bear some fraction of the tax burden, the regressivity will be reduced. Additionally, the regressivity can be offset with a carefully designed rebate of some or all of the revenue. Finally, the carbon tax bills that have been proposed or submitted are for the most part comparable to many of the carbon cap-and-trade proposals that have been suggested. Thus the choice between a carbon tax and cap-and-trade system can be made on the basis of considerations other than their effectiveness at reducing emissions over some control period. Either approach (or some hybrid of the two approaches) can be equally effective at reducing GHG emissions in the United States.

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