The Minamata Convention on Mercury entered into force in August 2017, committing its currently 92 parties to take action to protect human health and the environment from anthropogenic emissions and releases of mercury. But how can we tell whether the convention is achieving its objective? Although the convention requires periodic effectiveness evaluation (1), scientific uncertainties challenge our ability to trace how mercury policies translate into reduced human and wildlife exposure and impacts. Mercury emissions to air and releases to land and water follow a complex path through the environment before accumulating as methylmercury in fish, mammals, and birds. As these environmental processes are both uncertain and variable, analyzing existing data alone does not currently provide a clear signal of whether policies are effective. A global-scale metric to assess the impact of mercury emissions policies would help parties assess progress toward the convention's goal. Here, I build on the example of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer to identify criteria for a mercury metric. I then summarize why existing mercury data are insufficient and present and discuss a proposed new metric based on mercury emissions to air. Finally, I identify key scientific uncertainties that challenge future effectiveness evaluation.

Back-trajectory statistical methods, for example, potential source contribution functions (PSCF) and concentration-weighted trajectory (CWT) methods, have been widely used in previous studies to locate emission source regions of air pollutants or greenhouse gases. Inverse modeling methods have been developed and used in an increasing number of applications. To this date, there are no comparisons of performance between back-trajectory statistical and inverse modeling methods. This study evaluates the performance of PSCF, CWT, and inverse modeling methods by taking advantage of precisely known locations of trifluoromethane (CHF₃; HFC-23) sources. Results show poor performance of the PSCF and CWT methods and good performance of the inverse modeling method. This study suggests that in studies with the purpose of locating emission source regions the PSCF and CWT methods should be applied with caution in future studies and that the inverse modeling method is encouraged to be used much more widely.

The ozone layer depletion and its recovery, as well as the climate influence of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and their substitutes that influence climate, are of interest to both the scientific community and the public. Here we report on the emissions of ODSs and their substitute from China, which is currently the largest consumer (and emitter) of these substances. We provide, for the first time, comprehensive information on ODSs and replacement hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions in China starting from 1980 based on reported production and usage. We also assess the impacts (and costs) of controls on ODS consumption and emissions on the ozone layer (in terms of CFC-11-equivalent) and climate (in CO₂-equivalent). In addition, we show that while China’s future ODS emissions are likely to be defined as long as there is full compliance with the Montreal Protocol; its HFC emissions through 2050 are very uncertain. Our findings imply that HFC controls over the next decades that are more stringent than those under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol would be beneficial in mitigating global climate change.