JP

Absract: National commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change interact with other global environmental objectives, such as those of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. We assess how mercury emissions and deposition reductions from national climate policy in China under the Paris Agreement could contribute to the country's commitments under the Minamata Convention. We examine emissions under climate policy scenarios developed using a computable general equilibrium model of China's economy, end-of-pipe control scenarios that meet China's commitments under the Minamata Convention, and these policies in combination, and evaluate deposition using a global atmospheric transport model. We find climate policy in China can provide mercury benefits when implemented with Minamata policy, achieving in the year 2030 approximately 5% additional reduction in mercury emissions and deposition in China when climate policy achieves a 5% reduction per year in carbon intensity (CO2 emissions 9.7 Gt in 2030). This corresponds to 63 Mg additional mercury emissions reductions in 2030 when implemented with Minamata Convention policy, compared to Minamata policy implemented alone. Climate policy provides emissions reductions in sectors not considered under the Minamata Convention, such as residential combustion. This changes the combination of sectors that contribute to emissions reductions.

Abstract: The growing evidence of severe climate change impacts on human life and the global economy has created the increasing need for an assessment of low-carbon pathways. While the ultimate goal of zero- or near-zero global emissions is clear, the timing and trajectory to achieve low-carbon economic system is not. Projecting energy and climate is getting more challenging because the current energy and emission policies diverge further and further from the stated long-term policy goals. We provide a discussion of descriptive and prescriptive approaches to energy and climate forecasts. While the fundamental uncertainties are unavoidable, a group of scenarios that project the entire range of plausible developments provides better guidance for decision-making than any (or several) individual scenario(s). We offer an example of an integrated approach from the MIT Joint Program Outlook that can be used for a quantitative analysis of decision-making risks associated with different energy pathways. Despite the broad variety of scenarios, the article finds some robust findings for the energy system.

[Data Tables: 304 kB]

Climate change has been recognized as a source of risk for the financial sector. The nature of climate change, however, poses some challenges not traditionally encountered by general macro-economic and financial risk assessments. Climate-related risks are slowly evolving and span decades to centuries. This suggests the need for a different approach for evaluating climate-related financial risk than has been used for conventional stress testing of financial institutions. A goal of this paper is to investigate a range of climate policy scenarios to develop various metrics—such as carbon and fossil fuel prices, levels of sectoral production, and estimates of the value of stranded assets associated with a range of energy transitions—that can then be used in further analysis to help identify climate-related financial risk in the specific investment portfolios of individual financial institutions. A second goal is to lay out a set of methods appropriate for evaluating the physical risk of climate change, using an existing set of studies to illustrate challenges and necessary considerations.

Pages

Subscribe to JP