Risk Analysis

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model–Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events.

© 2014 the authors

 

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this journal article (doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1048-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

This article is part of a Special Issue on “A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States” edited by Jeremy Martinich, John Reilly, Stephanie Waldhoff, Marcus Sarofim, and James McFarland.

Past fossil fuel use has conferred a complex mixture of benefits and risks on current and future generations. While enabling a tremendous growth in prosperity, the resulting greenhouse gas emissions may contribute to irreversible changes. For example, the Greenland Ice Sheet might disintegrate in response to anthropogenic climate forcings. The resulting sea-level rise would create serious risks for the sustainability of low-lying regions in the United States and beyond.

What are Sustainable Climate-Risk Management Strategies?

This study aims to identify regions where the resiliency to withstand extreme weather and climate events is at risk, and therefore degrade the regions' ability to resist any changes. This will aid stakeholders and decision-makers as they prepare for and adapt to environmental change. By employing a variety of models, including MIT's Integrated System Model (IGSM), we will evaluate how a set of environmental stresses affects specific regions. This work will also develop a heuristic model to serve as more efficient and powerful predictive tool to help guide adaptation strategies.

Future of Ecosystems and Extremes: Using Diverse Environmental Data Sets in Support of Regional to Global Earth-System Models and Predictions

This project aims to develop a modeling structure to analyze the effects of climate change on water temperature and availability as factors affecting electricity production and other energy facilities and infrastructures.  We also plan to explore the effects possible adaptation strategies could have on reducing impacts of climate change on power production.  To do this work, we will be using data from the Oak Ridge National Lab that is related to power plants in the Gulf Coast region.

Assessing the Impact of Future Climates on the Thermal Electric and Hydroelectric Generating Capacity of the Southeast U.S.

An ongoing project of the Program is to utilize the Integrated Global System Model (the IGSM) to identify the impacts of global environmental change on energy and economic activities, land productivity, agricultural production, and human health. Assessments of uncertainties in the human-climate interaction, and the associated societal risks, are needed to inform decision-making and policy formulation.

Analysis of Climate Change Uncertainties and Risks using the MIT IGSM

An ongoing project of the Program is to utilize the Earth System Model (the IGSM) to identify the impacts of global environmental change on energy and economic activities, land productivity, agricultural production, and human health. The IGSM links the climate system (atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial process) to the human drivers of global change and to system responses to climate and other environmental impacts.

Assessment of Impacts of Global Environmental Change using the MIT IGSM

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