Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes of extreme events, especially at the local and national level, is large. In this study, we analyze changes in extreme events over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model–Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification of extreme daily maximum temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. The number of rain days per year increases over the Great Plains but decreases in the northern Pacific Coast and along the Gulf Coast. Extreme daily minimum temperatures increase, especially over the northern parts of the US. As a result, the number of frost days per year decreases over the entire US and the frost-free zone expands northward. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Nonetheless, it clearly shows that under a reference emissions scenario with no climate policy, changes in extreme events reach dangerous levels, especially for large values of climate sensitivity. On the other hand, the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered.

Climate change may damage road infrastructure, to the potential detriment of economic growth, particularly in developing countries. To quantitatively assess climate change's consequences, we incorporate a climate–infrastructure model based on stressor–response relationships directly into a recursive dynamic economy-wide model to estimate and compare road damages with other climate change impact channels. We apply this framework to Mozambique and simulate four future climate scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change through 2050 is likely to place a drag on economic growth and development prospects. The economic implications of climate change appear to become more pronounced from about 2030. Nevertheless, the implications are not so strong as to drastically diminish development prospects. Our findings suggest that impact assessments should include damages to long-run assets, such as road infrastructure, imposed by climate change.

© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

China is the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2) and is one of the world’s largest exporters. In 2007, CO2 emissions embodied in China’s net exports totaled 1176 million metric tons (mmt), accounting for 22% of China’s CO2 emissions. We calculate CO2 emissions embodied in China’s net exports using the latest release of a multi-regional input-output database developed by the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP 8). We find that the majority of China’s export-embodied CO2 is associated with production of machinery and equipment rather than products traditionally classified as energy intensive, such as steel and aluminum. The largest net recipients of embodied CO2 emissions from China include the EU (360 mmt), the US (337 mmt) and Japan (109 mmt). We also develop a global general equilibrium model with energy and CO2 emissions detail. We use the model to analyze the impact of a sectoral shift from energy-intensive industry to services and a tax on energy-intensive exports, which reflect policy objectives in China’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) on CO2 emissions embodied in China’s net exports and on global CO2 emissions. We find that while both policies reduce China’s export-embodied CO2 emissions, global there is only a small change in global CO2 emissions.

China’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015) aims to achieve a national carbon intensity reduction of 17% through differentiated targets at the provincial level. Allocating the national target among China’s provinces is complicated by the fact that more than half of China’s national carbon emissions are embodied in interprovincial trade, with the relatively developed eastern provinces relying on the central and western provinces for energy-intensive imports. This study develops a consistent methodology to adjust regional emissions-intensity targets for trade-related emissions transfers and assesses its economic effects on China's provinces using a regional computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. This study finds that in 2007 China's eastern provinces outsource 14% of their territorial emissions to the central and western provinces. Adjusting the provincial targets for those emissions transfers increases the reduction burden for the eastern provinces by 60%, while alleviating the burden for the central and western provinces by 50% each. The CGE analysis indicates that this adjustment could double China's national welfare loss compared to the homogenous and politics-based distribution of reduction targets. A shared-responsibility approach that balances production-based and consumption-based emissions responsibilities is found to alleviate those unbalancing effects and lead to a more equal distribution of economic burden among China's provinces.