Regional Analysis

A systems analysis of sustainability impacts of agricultural policies in India

Abstract

We apply a systems framework for analyzing the overall sustainability impacts of interventions to a case of the rice-wheat cropping system of Punjab (India), where agricultural practices lead to air pollution-related health impacts, over-exploitation of groundwater, over-use of fertilizers and reduced local crop diversity. We use this case to quantify how varying degrees of change in interventions result in sustainability impacts using an inclusive wealth-based approach.

We show that either improving the existing cropping system or inducing fundamental changes in the cropping system, can lead to substantial and wide-ranging sustainability benefits. We also show that interventions that improve human health show the largest quantitative benefit due to the assumed high marginal value of human life. Accurate localized estimates of marginal values of stocks are needed for estimating overall sustainability impacts.  

Key Points

  1. We apply a systems framework for analyzing policy interventions to the rice-wheat cropping system of Punjab (India). 
  2. We quantify the sustainability impacts of interventions involving varying degrees of change in the system using an inclusive weath-based approach.
  3. We show how policy-induced changes can lead to substantial and wide-ranging sustainability benefits.

Plain Language Summary

We use a systems-based approach for studying air pollution as a challenge embedded in a broader network of sustainability issues, and analyze the cross-sectoral impacts of policy interventions. We use the rice-wheat cropping system in Punjab, India, as a case study, since agricultural practices in this system are associated with a number of inter-linked sustainability challenges such as air pollution-related health impacts, over-exploitation of groundwater, over-use of fertilizers and reduced local crop diversity. We analyze the sustainability impacts of varying degrees of policy-induced change in this system and show that both incremental and fundamental changes can lead to wide-ranging sustainability benefits.

Deploying direct air capture at scale: how close to reality?

Abstract: The role of negative emissions in achieving deep decarbonization targets has been demonstrated through Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). While many studies have focused on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), relatively little attention has been given to direct air capture (DAC) in IAMs beyond assessing the role of low-cost DAC with carbon storage (DACCS). In this study, we employ an economywide model to more fully explore the potential role of DAC, considering the full range of cost estimates ($180-$1,000/tCO2), DAC units supplied by either dedicated renewables or grid electricity, and both the storage of captured CO2 (DACCS) or its utilization (DACCU) to produce fuels.

Our results show that the deployment of DAC is driven by its cost and is dominated by DACCS, with little deployment of DACCU. We analyze the technical and policy conditions making DACCS compete with BECCS, investigating scenarios in which BECCS is limited and there is no emissions trading across countries. With an international emissions trading system (ETS), we find that Africa takes advantage of its large and cheap renewable potential to export emissions permits and contributes more than half of total global negative emissions through DAC. However, DAC also proves essential when no ETS is available, particularly in Asian countries due to scarce and expensive access to land and bioenergy.

Our analysis provides a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of DAC on the power system, economy, and land use.

Highlights

  • The deployment of DAC should be discussed relative to its cost.

  • DAC is deployed at scale at a cost lower than $400/tCO2 in our baseline.

  • Limiting BECCS and international emissions trading increases DAC deployment.

  • DAC stresses the power sector and land use locally but provides economic benefits.

     

Power sector impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

Abstract: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector investments, emissions, and costs across 11 models of the U.S. energy system and electricity sector.

Our results project that IRA incentives accelerate the deployment of low-emitting capacity, increasing average annual additions by up to 3.2 times current levels through 2035. CO2 emissions reductions from electricity generation across models range from 47%–83% below 2005 in 2030 (68% average) and 66%–87% in 2035 (78% average).

Our higher clean electricity deployment and lower emissions under IRA, compared with earlier U.S. modeling, change the baseline for future policymaking and analysis. IRA helps to bring projected U.S. power sector and economy-wide emissions closer to near-term climate targets; however, no models indicate that these targets will be met with IRA alone, which suggests that additional policies, incentives, and private sector actions are needed.

KEY INSIGHTS
• Power sector CO2 emissions could drop 66-87% by 2035 with IRA from 2005 (compared with 39-68% without IRA).
• IRA could accelerate clean electricity deployment, including 1.4-6.2 times current installed wind and solar capacity by 2035.
• Low-emitting generation shares—including renewables, nuclear, and carbon capture—in 2035 range from 59-89% with IRA, compared with 46-74% without IRA.
• Total fiscal costs of IRA's power sector provisions could range from $240-960 billion through 2035. Energy costs could be $73-370 per household per year lower by 2035 with IRA.

Emissions of CFC-11, a chlorofluorocarbon once frequently used in cooling and insulation systems to improve the quality of life, can also endanger life. Upon entry into the stratosphere where solar ultraviolet radiation is strong, CFC-11 decomposes, resulting in the release of chlorine, which degrades the ozone layer that shields life from harmful UV rays. In 2018, a team of scientists discovered an alarming upward spike in global CFC-11 emissions from 2013 to 2017.

Probing the atmosphere, protecting the biosphere
Anthropogenic emissions of chlorine-containing very short-lived halogenated substances in China

Abstract: Unregulated very short-lived halogenated substances (VSLSs) are playing an increasingly important role in global stratospheric ozone depletion as emissions of long-lived ozone-depleting substances such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) decline due to the controls of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The impacts of VSLSs on the stratospheric ozone layer could be more significant when their emissions are from regions with strong convective pathways from the surface to the stratosphere, such as occur in East and South Asia, compared to other regions.

Dichloromethane (CH2Cl2) and chloroform (CHCl3) are the two most abundant chlorine containing VSLSs, whose global emissions have increased substantially in the last two decades. In this study, the emissions of CH2Cl2 and CHCl3 over 2011-2020 in China were derived by atmospheric measurements and a “top-down” inverse modelling method. Emissions of CH2Cl2 from China increased substantially throughout the period, while emissions of CHCl3 increased through 2017 and then decreased afterwards. The derived distributions of emissions of both substances in China are consistent with anthropogenic origins, which can also be validated by the “bottom-up” inventories compiled in this study. The inter-annual variations of emissions in China of the two substances can explain nearly the entire global emission changes of each substance, indicating the dominant role of China in driving global emission changes.

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