Regional Analysis

Abstract: We organized this Special Feature on “Modeling Dynamic Systems for Sustainable Development” to showcase the field’s recent advances. Much recent research in sustainability science has mobilized data and theory to better understand systems that include interacting people, technologies, institutions, ecosystems, and both social and environmental processes. A recent National Academies workshop and an Annual Review paper identified several challenges and open questions for the field, stressing the importance of developing and testing new theories to advance knowledge and guide action. However, there has been less attention in sustainability science towards integrating modeling with theory and data-focused approaches. Modeling is necessary for making projections about the dynamical implications of our present understanding of nature-society systems – which is essential to determining whether long term trends in nature-society interactions are consistent with sustainable development goals, and to analyze whether particular interventions (e.g. technologies, policies, behavior) are likely to change those interactions in ways that promote such goals.

The papers in this Special Feature highlight advances in simulating coupled nature-society systems. We believe that these techniques, if they were more widely adopted, could significantly improve the capacity of sustainability science researchers to test
theory, mobilize data, and inform action. Each contribution to the Special Feature addresses a specific area in which novel modeling approaches have demonstrated the capacity to advance theory and insight more broadly. The contributions were selected to be illustrative rather than comprehensive, and to facilitate connections across the communities they represent.

 

Abstract: The Modeling Dynamic Systems for Sustainable Development Special Feature showcases recent advances in modeling that, if more widely adopted, could significantly improve the capacity of sustainability science researchers to test theory, mobilize data, and evaluate interventions. The contributors show how new methods and approaches for analyzing complex interactions in nature–society systems can help to link knowledge with action in society’s efforts to address the core challenges of sustainable development.

Summary: This project aims to build an integrated modeling framework that links highly resolved sectoral models for agriculture and water with the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), which represents global economic and climate systems. This novel global framework will capture (a) global, inter-regional and inter-sectoral dynamics, (b) highly-resolved local and sectoral dynamics of water and agricultural systems, and (c) multiple channels of climate impacts on the economy.

Abstract: The combination of taxa and size classes of phytoplankton that coexist at any location affects the structure of the marine food web and the magnitude of carbon fluxes to the deep ocean. But what controls the patterns of this community structure across environmental gradients remains unclear.

Here, we focus on the North East Pacific Transition Zone, a ~ 10° region of latitude straddling warm, nutrient-poor subtropical and cold, nutrient-rich subpolar gyres. Data from three cruises to the region revealed intricate patterns of phytoplankton community structure: poleward increases in the number of cell size classes; increasing biomass of picoeukaryotes and diatoms; decreases in diazotrophs and Prochlorococcus; and both increases and decreases in Synechococcus. These patterns can only be partially explained by existing theories.

Using data, theory, and numerical simulations, we show that the patterns of plankton distributions across the transition zone are the result of gradients in nutrient supply rates, which control a range of complex biotic interactions. We examine how interactions such as size-specific grazing, multiple trophic strategies, shared grazing between several phytoplankton size classes and heterotrophic bacteria, and competition for multiple resources can individually explain aspects of the observed community structure. However, it is the combination of all these interactions together that is needed to explain the bulk compositional patterns in phytoplankton across the North East Pacific Transition Zone. The synthesis of multiple mechanisms is essential for us to begin to understand the shaping of community structure over large environmental gradients.

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