Regional Analysis

Assessing the Changing Risk of Flood-producing Events in Cambridge

Abstract: In this study, we assess the potential for future changes in the frequency of summertime heavy-to-extreme precipitation events – defined as  2” of rainfall in 3 hours – across the greater Cambridge area as a result of anthropogenic global warming. The study relies upon an “analogue method” that identifies well-resolved large scale, daily-averaged atmospheric patterns associated with the occurrence of local extreme events, and thus enables evaluating the ability of climate models to simulate conditions conducive to such extremes that occur at unresolvable spatial scales. We find that climate models from the Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) consistently reproduce the historical occurrence of these synoptic-scale patterns associated with the occurrence of the heavy-to-extreme precipitation events observed across the greater Cambridge area. Applying these analogues into the future across all the CMIP5 model projections, there is weak evidence of any considerable trend in the frequency of these heavy-to-extreme events out to the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, analyses that consider a strong climate-change mitigation scenario show no salient effect on the ensemble-median change as well as the interquartile and minimum-maximum ranges. Further work is warranted that considers: a more robust sampling of associated spatial patterns, rather than a pooled or average spatial pattern, to the local extreme; a more explicit treatment of the sub-daily atmospheric patterns that coincide with the local, sub-daily (i.e., 3-hour) event.

Electricity trade impacts on regional power pools in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: In this study, we evaluated the impacts of 3 different electricity trade scenarios among four African power pools given a time series of available hydropower production. The available hydropower production is determined after all other higher priority water demands are met using a river basin model (WEAP). The objective of the power pool model (RTEP) was to maximize global welfare (i.e., meet total electricity demand at lowest cost including the cost of non-served energy) assuming perfect competition.

From the WEAP analysis, the CAPP produces the most hydropower followed by the EAPP and SAPP and lastly the WAPP. This is also seen in the RTEP analysis which shows the connection of the two models. In the No Trade and Min Trade scenarios, there is a significant amount of hydropower production that goes unused in all regions, especially in the CAPP and SAPP. A positive outcome of the Full Trade scenario is that all hydropower is used, none is wasted.

By allowing trade among the power pools, the need to build new electricity production facilities is decreased by about 19 GW in the Min Trade scenario and an additional 10 GW in the Full Trade scenario. By reducing the need to expand production capacity, these regions save money by not needing to build new facilities but instead are able to use electricity from other power pools.

A new UN video on climate change explains how carbon pricing can help advance a transition to a low-carbon future. The video features an MIT Joint Program/National Renewable Energy Laboratoray (NREL) study in the journal Climate Change Economics showing how a carbon tax can both accelerate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and be fair and not hurt low-income households.

MIT Joint Program/NREL study featured in UN video "The Truth about Carbon Taxes"
Transition Scenarios for Analyzing Climate-Related Financial Risk

Abstract: In November 2020, the Bank of Canada launched a pilot project with the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions aimed at better understanding risks to the economy and the financial system related to climate change. Part of this work included developing a set of Canada-relevant climate transition scenarios that explore pathways consistent with achieving certain climate targets. The scenarios vary in terms of two key drivers of climate transition risk: (i) the ambition and timing of climate policy and (ii) the pace of technological change and availability of advanced technologies. To develop the scenarios, we used a suite-of-models approach that linked a computable general equilibrium energy-economy model with two macroeconomic models. The scenarios focus on Canada and the United States because of the material exposure of the Canadian financial sector to these regions. They capture the evolution of the global economy, summarized across 10 emissions-intensive sectors of the economy and across 8 distinct regions of the world. The analysis illustrated the important sectoral restructuring the Canadian and global economies may need to undertake to meet climate targets. The analysis showed that every sector contributes to the transition and that the financial impacts vary across sectors. These impacts depend on how the sectors are impacted by emissions and capital expenditures costs and on how the demand for their products is affected by decarbonizing of economies. The scenarios also shed light on the risks of significant macroeconomic impacts, in particular for commodity-exporting countries like Canada. The economic impacts for Canada are driven mostly by declines in global prices of commodities rather than by domestic policy decisions. Finally, the analysis showed that delaying climate policy action increases the overall economic impacts and risks to financial stability.

This report is also available at the Bank of Canada website.

On January 12, 2022, MIT Joint Program Research Scientist Kenneth Strzepek presented a talk entitled "The role of Nile water resources in the economic development of Egypt and Ethiopia, and the potential impacts of the GERD filling policies." The talk was part of "The Nile River Basin in Crisis: Water Sharing and Transboundary Conflict or Cooperation" Webinar Series, presented by the UCLA African Studies Center. 

Oultine:

The role of Nile water resources in the economic development of Egypt and Ethiopia, and the potential impacts of the GERD filling policies

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