Climate Policy

Lost (and found) in Transition: Expert stakeholder insights on low-carbon energy transitions in Spain

Abstract: Despite losing its low-carbon energy transition path in the last decade, Spain, since 2017, has picked up its commitment to complying with the objectives set out in the Paris Agreement for ratcheting 2030 and 2050 ambitions. This research departs from an extensive in-depth expert stakeholder engagement, proposing a research process of scoping: reaching out to academics, NGOs, administrators, energy providers and the private sector among other agents that guide the future of transitions in Spain; listening: identifying, through interviews, the knowledge gaps; understanding: manifesting answers of the multitude of over 200 expert stakeholders and participating: extending out and disseminating results. We present five central emerging themes on: ambitions and temporalities of targets highlighting ambition gaps across stakeholder groups for 2030 and 2050 objectives; the future of carbon and nuclear energy pushing for eventual closure of both across distinct points in time; the rollout of renewable energy technologies in a transition pursuit; preferences on fiscal and policy measures to facilitate investments and priority sectors of action and ultimately discuss gender equality and justice, and the lack thereof, in energy decision making. Our research summons up the delicate intricacies of the transition debate in Spain, setting a discursive space in hopes of contributing to the future design of the Law on Climate Change and Energy Transition.

Increase in global emissions of HFC-23 despite near-total expected reductions

Abstract: Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHF33), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 (CHClF22). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 ± 0.9 Gg yr−1± 0.9 Gg yr−1). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional ~309 Tg CO2CO2-equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017.

Mercury Benefits of Climate Policy in China: Addressing the Paris Agreement and the Minamata Convention Simultaneously

Absract: National commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change interact with other global environmental objectives, such as those of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. We assess how mercury emissions and deposition reductions from national climate policy in China under the Paris Agreement could contribute to the country's commitments under the Minamata Convention. We examine emissions under climate policy scenarios developed using a computable general equilibrium model of China's economy, end-of-pipe control scenarios that meet China's commitments under the Minamata Convention, and these policies in combination, and evaluate deposition using a global atmospheric transport model. We find climate policy in China can provide mercury benefits when implemented with Minamata policy, achieving in the year 2030 approximately 5% additional reduction in mercury emissions and deposition in China when climate policy achieves a 5% reduction per year in carbon intensity (CO2 emissions 9.7 Gt in 2030). This corresponds to 63 Mg additional mercury emissions reductions in 2030 when implemented with Minamata Convention policy, compared to Minamata policy implemented alone. Climate policy provides emissions reductions in sectors not considered under the Minamata Convention, such as residential combustion. This changes the combination of sectors that contribute to emissions reductions.

Projecting Energy and Climate for the 21st Century

Abstract: The growing evidence of severe climate change impacts on human life and the global economy has created the increasing need for an assessment of low-carbon pathways. While the ultimate goal of zero- or near-zero global emissions is clear, the timing and trajectory to achieve low-carbon economic system is not. Projecting energy and climate is getting more challenging because the current energy and emission policies diverge further and further from the stated long-term policy goals. We provide a discussion of descriptive and prescriptive approaches to energy and climate forecasts. While the fundamental uncertainties are unavoidable, a group of scenarios that project the entire range of plausible developments provides better guidance for decision-making than any (or several) individual scenario(s). We offer an example of an integrated approach from the MIT Joint Program Outlook that can be used for a quantitative analysis of decision-making risks associated with different energy pathways. Despite the broad variety of scenarios, the article finds some robust findings for the energy system.

MIT Scenarios for Assessing Climate-Related Financial Risk

[Data Tables: 304 kB]

Climate change has been recognized as a source of risk for the financial sector. The nature of climate change, however, poses some challenges not traditionally encountered by general macro-economic and financial risk assessments. Climate-related risks are slowly evolving and span decades to centuries. This suggests the need for a different approach for evaluating climate-related financial risk than has been used for conventional stress testing of financial institutions. A goal of this paper is to investigate a range of climate policy scenarios to develop various metrics—such as carbon and fossil fuel prices, levels of sectoral production, and estimates of the value of stranded assets associated with a range of energy transitions—that can then be used in further analysis to help identify climate-related financial risk in the specific investment portfolios of individual financial institutions. A second goal is to lay out a set of methods appropriate for evaluating the physical risk of climate change, using an existing set of studies to illustrate challenges and necessary considerations.

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