Uncertainty Analysis of Global Climate Change Projections

Joint Program Report
Uncertainty Analysis of Global Climate Change Projections
Webster, M.D., C.E. Forest, J.M. Reilly, A.P. Sokolov, P.H. Stone, H.D. Jacoby and R.G. Prinn (2001)
Joint Program Report Series, 3 pages

Report 73 [Download]

Abstract/Summary:

Communicating uncertainty in climate projections provides essential information to decision makers, allowing them to evaluate how policies might reduce the risk of climate impacts. In ongoing work, we use quantitative uncertainty techniques to develop this information. As an illustration of the approach we find that, absent mitigation policies, our median projection shows a global mean surface temperature rise from 1990 to 2100 of 2.3 degrees C, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.9 degrees C to 5.3 degrees C. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports a range for the global mean surface temperature rise by 2100 of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C but does not provide likelihood estimates for this key finding although it does for others.

Citation:

Webster, M.D., C.E. Forest, J.M. Reilly, A.P. Sokolov, P.H. Stone, H.D. Jacoby and R.G. Prinn (2001): Uncertainty Analysis of Global Climate Change Projections. Joint Program Report Series Report 73, 3 pages (http://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/14687)

Superseded by:

Report 95. Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change and Policy Response (Joint Program Report Series, 2002)
  • Joint Program Report
Uncertainty Analysis of Global Climate Change Projections

Webster, M.D., C.E. Forest, J.M. Reilly, A.P. Sokolov, P.H. Stone, H.D. Jacoby and R.G. Prinn

Joint Program Report Series

Report 

73
3 pages
2001

Abstract/Summary: 

Communicating uncertainty in climate projections provides essential information to decision makers, allowing them to evaluate how policies might reduce the risk of climate impacts. In ongoing work, we use quantitative uncertainty techniques to develop this information. As an illustration of the approach we find that, absent mitigation policies, our median projection shows a global mean surface temperature rise from 1990 to 2100 of 2.3 degrees C, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.9 degrees C to 5.3 degrees C. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports a range for the global mean surface temperature rise by 2100 of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C but does not provide likelihood estimates for this key finding although it does for others.

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