Energy Transition

Technology and Technical Change in the MIT EPPA Model

Potential technology change has a strong influence on projections of greenhouse gas emissions and costs of control, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common device for studying these phenomena. Using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as an example, two ways of representing technology in these models are discussed: the sector-level description of production possibilities founded on social accounting matrices and elasticity estimates, and sub-models of specific supply or end-use devices based on engineering-process data. A distinction is made between exogenous and endogenous technical change, and it is shown how, because of model structure and the origin of key parameters, such models naturally include shifts in production process that reflect some degree of endogenous technical change. As a result, the introduction of explicit endogenous relations should be approached with caution, to avoid double counting.

Technology Detail in a Multi-Sector CGE Model: Transport Under Climate Policy

A set of three analytical models is used to study the imbedding of specific transport technologies within a multisector, multiregion evaluation of constraints on greenhouse emissions. The key parameters of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model are set to mimic the behavior of a model of modal splits and a market allocation (MARKAL) model of household and industry transport activities. In simulation mode, the CGE model provides key economic data to an analysis of the details of transport technology under policy restraint. Results focus on the penetration of new automobile technologies into the vehicle market.

Technology detail in a multisector CGE model: Transport under climate policy

A set of three analytical models is used to study the imbedding of specific transport technologies within a multisector, multiregion evaluation of constraints on greenhouse emissions. The key parameters of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model are set to mimic the behavior of a model of modal splits and a market allocation (MARKAL) model of household and industry transport activities. In simulation mode, the CGE model provides key economic data to an analysis of the details of transport technology under policy restraint. Results focus on the penetration of new automobile technologies into the vehicle market. © 2004 Elsevier

The future mobility of the world population

On average a person spends 1.1h per day traveling and devotes a predictable fraction of income to travel. We show that these time and money budgets are stable over space and time and can be used for projecting future levels of mobility and transport mode. The fixed travel money budget requires that mobility rises nearly in proportion with income. Covering greater distances within the same fixed travel time budget requires that travelers shift to faster modes of transport. The choice of future transport modes is also constrained by path dependence because transport infrastructures change only slowly. In addition, demand for low-speed public transport is partially determined by urban population densities and land-use characteristics. We present a model that incorporates these constraints, which we use for projecting traffic volume and the share of the major motorized modes of transport-automobiles, buses, trains and high speed transport (mainly aircraft)-for 11 regions and the world through 2050. We project that by 2050 the average world citizen will travel as many kilometers as the average West European in 1990. The average American's mobility will rise by a factor of 2.6 by 2050, to 58,000 km/year. The average Indian travels 6000km/year by 2050, comparable with West European levels in the early 1970s. Today, world citizens move 23 billion km in total; by 2050 that figure grows to 105 billion.

Copyright Elsevier

The Future of Coal Consumption in a Carbon Constrained World

Coal accounts for nearly 30% of all global fossil fuel consumption and 37% of fossil fuel emissions of carbon dioxide. It is used primarily in the electric power sector where it provides over half of the primary energy input. In the absence of penalties or restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions, coal use for electricity generation is expected to grow over the course of this century due to its relative abundance. However, policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have the potential to threaten coal’s dominance in the electric power sector in favor of less carbon-intensive natural gas. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies hold promise in offsetting this switch. To understand these tradeoffs in a carbon dioxide constrained world, we examine the influence of four factors on future of coal consumption in the electric power sector: the price of carbon emissions, the price of natural gas, costs of CCS technologies, and the dispatch between coal and natural gas generation technologies. In this paper, we develop plausible, yet wide-ranging, scenarios for the variables mentioned above. We assess their effect on coal consumption using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. The results illustrate how competing technologies, changing input prices, and general equilibrium effects influence the adoption of CCS technologies. Our results for the United States and Europe suggest that carbon price and dispatch have the most significant effect on future coal consumption. Improvements in CCS technology costs make coal consumption less dependent on gas price, but do not mitigate the carbon price effects on consumption through 2050.

The Future of Coal: Options for a Carbon-Constrained World, an interdisciplinary MIT study

An interdisciplinary MIT faculty group examined the role of coal in a world where constraints on carbon dioxide emissions are adopted to mitigate global climate change. This follows "The Future of Nuclear Power" which focused on carbon dioxide emissions-free electricity generation from nuclear energy and was published in 2003. This report, the future of coal in a carbon-constrained world, evaluates the technologies and costs associated with the generation of electricity from coal along with those associated with the capture and sequestration of the carbon dioxide produced coal-based power generation. Growing electricity demand in the U.S. and in the world will require increases in all generation options (renewables, coal, and nuclear) in addition to increased efficiency and conservation in its use. Coal will continue to play a significant role in power generation and as such carbon dioxide management from it will become increasingly important. This study, addressed to government, industry and academic leaders, discusses the interrelated technical, economic, environmental and political challenges facing increased coal-based power generation while managing carbon dioxide emissions from this sector.

The Future of Natural Gas: An Interdisciplinary MIT Study

The Future of Natural Gas is the fourth in a series of MIT multidisciplinary reports examining the role of various energy sources that may be important for meeting future demand under carbon dioxide emissions constraints. In each case, we explore the steps needed to enable competitiveness in a future marketplace conditioned by a CO2 emissions price. Often overlooked in past debates about the future of energy in the U.S., natural gas is finding its place at the heart of the energy discussion. Natural gas is a major fuel for multiple end uses — electricity, industry, heating — and is increasingly discussed as a potential pathway to reduced oil dependence for transportation. In addition, the realization over the last few years that the producible unconventional gas resource in the U.S. is very large has intensified the discussion about natural gas as a "bridge" to a low-carbon future.

The Future of the Electric Grid: An Interdisciplinary MIT Study

The U.S. electric grid is a vast physical and human network connecting thousands of electricity generators to millions of consumers — a linked system of public and private enterprises operating within a web of government institutions: federal, regional, state, and municipal. The grid will face a number of serious challenges over the next two decades, while new technologies also present valuable opportunities for meeting these challenges. A failure to realize these opportunities or meet these challenges could result in degraded reliability, significantly increased costs, and a failure to achieve several public policy goals.

This report, the fifth in the MIT Energy Initiative’s Future of series, aims to provide a comprehensive, objective portrait of the U.S. electric grid and the identification and analysis of areas in which intelligent policy changes, focused research, and data development and sharing can contribute to meeting the challenges the grid is facing. It reflects a focus on integrating and evaluating existing knowledge rather than performing original research. We hope it will be of value to decision makers in industry and in all levels of government as they guide the grid’s necessary evolution.

The Future of U.S. Natural Gas Production, Use, and Trade

Two computable general equilibrium models, one global and the other providing U.S. regional detail, are applied to analysis of the future of U.S. natural gas. The focus is on uncertainties including the scale and cost of gas resources, the costs of competing technologies, the pattern of greenhouse gas mitigation, and the evolution of global natural gas markets. Results show that the outlook for gas over the next several decades is very favorable. In electric generation, given the unproven and relatively high cost of other low-carbon generation alternatives, gas is likely the preferred alternative to coal. A broad GHG pricing policy would increase gas use in generation but reduce use in other sectors, on balance increasing its role from present levels. The shale gas resource is a major contributor to this optimistic view of the future of gas. Gas can be an effective bridge to a lower emissions future, but investment in the development of still lower CO2 technologies remains an important priority. International gas resources may well prove to be less costly than those in the U.S., except for the lowest-cost domestic shale resources, and the emergence of an integrated global gas market could result in significant U.S. gas imports.

©2011 Elsevier Ltd.

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