Infrastructure & Investment

Abstract: This paper proposes a methodology for quantifying the climate-related transition impacts on energy-intensive companies. In this study, we use a publicly available dataset created by the Bank of Canada that combines the scenarios developed by the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model with the results from two macroeconomic models (ToTEM and BoC-GEM-Fin) to illustrate price and production patterns for 10 emission-intensive sectors across 8 aggregated regions. Our focus lies on mapping the trajectories of future sectoral revenues and operating expenditures (direct and indirect costs) to company-level impacts. We align these indicators with the top-down approach used by the European Central Bank to measure issuer-specific exposure to transition risk. By incorporating company-level data, such as revenues in sub-activities and direct emissions, we are able to compute issuer-level financial statements that are particularly relevant to define scenario- based equity valuation ratio and corporate credit risk. By examining the narrative established by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) – which includes current policies, nationally determined contributions, net-zero targets, staying below 2°C, and delayed transition – we assess the added value of employing such models for asset allocation. The conclusions drawn from our case study analysis suggest a significant heterogeneity within sectors and demonstrate that the diversification of corporate revenues in sub-activities leads to distinct valuation patterns.

Abstract: In recent years, researchers have begun to propose methods to assess distributive justice under climate change and within adaptation policies. Literature calls for a systematic approach for incorporating distributive justice in water resources planning, and clear guidelines on how best to include such an approach in standard project development and decision-making frameworks. So far, there are inadequate illustrative examples of how this is done in practice, and little connection has been made to financial evaluation and decision metrics commonly used by stakeholders. While stakeholders and decision makers rely on the outcome of financial assessment methods such as Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) to make informed decisions on a project’s economic ‘viability’ and justify cost investments, matters of equity are often neglected. Given the complexities of equitable resource planning in the presence of uncertainties like climate change, the study presents a step-by-step methodology to robust water project investment under climate change uncertainty while exploring benefit streams from equitable spatial distribution. Making this connection between equity in the distribution of water resources and their corresponding climate risks, and financial metrics used for decision making, would prove valuable to stakeholders in both academia and industry. Further, by providing decision makers with both equity and economic metrics upon which to base their decisions, confident decisions justifying cost investment and safeguarding equitable resource distribution can be made amid changing climate conditions.

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