Infrastructure & Investment

Toward resilient energy infrastructure: Understanding the effects of changes in the climate mean and extreme events in the Northeastern United States

Abstract: Infrastructure systems are vulnerable to weather risks. With climate change, extreme events are expected to increase.To evaluate these changes in the Northeastern United States, state-of-the-art high-resolution, convection-permitting regional climate modeling simulations are carried out to downscale projections of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to 3 km horizontal resolution under a high impact emissions scenario for a near future time period (2025-2041). Changes in mean climate and extreme events are assessed relative to the present-day climate (2006-2020) for three key weather elements affecting electricity grid infrastructure and operations: temperatures, wind speeds and ice accumulation on infrastructure surfaces. An assessment of exceedance threshold calculations based on the safety thresholds set by National Electric Safety Code (NESC) and International Organization for Standardization (ISO) is also provided.

The MIT Industrial Liaison Program (ILP) defines sustainability as “the capacity to endure – to consume, grow, and thrive—but not to be consumed and perish in the process.” On March 9, 2021, The ILP held a webinar on sustainability research at MIT, an Institute-wide endeavor that spans materials science, energy, recycling, economic policy, urban planning and other fields.

Assessing and managing risks amid global and regional change
Hydroclimatic analysis of climate change risks to global corporate assets in support of deep-dive valuation

Abstract: Climate change poses both risks and opportunities for business, now and in the future. However, investors, lenders, and insurers currently lack quantitative tools to view which companies will endure or flourish, and which companies are resilient or not. Measuring, managing, and reporting environmental impacts is not only important for the planet and the communities in which we work, but also essential for the future growth of our businesses. Among the key climate-related risks to society and business in particular are hydroclimatic risks (i.e., flood and drought). Projecting change in these risks are essential for the design, operation and management of public and private infrastructures. This is particularly true for large multi-national enterprises where their infrastructure and supply chains are located and connected across a wide-range of hydro-climatic zones. For the most part, public infrastructure in the industrial nations and private multinational production facilities have been designed to address current hydroclimatic risks. Regardless of these measures, we are faced with an unavoidable changing environment, which will alter hydro-climatic extremes and risks.

In light of these considerations, the primary objectives of this endeavor are to assess the change in hydro-climatic risks to the global landscape of a corporation’s infrastructure by providing: (1) weather and climate-induced impacts across the global hydrologic and water resources system; (2) conditions leading to weather, climate, and hydrologic extremes and their resultant hazards; and (3) risk-based projections of these changes for a selection of key facilities and supply-chain junctures. 

The analysis presented is performed on the actual global facilities of an anonymous global corporation, which hereafter will be referred to as GloCorp. A risk-based Indicator framework is developed. The framework utilizes an ensemble of hybrid frequency distribution (HFD) climate scenarios from the MIT Earth Systems Model with an enhanced version of the World Bank’s Climate Risk Hydro Indictors. The results suggest that by 2030, 61% of all facilities face a Medium or High Climate Risk. However, as climate change intensifies over the coming century, the impact on GloCorp’s facilities increases. By 2050, it is projected that 90% of all facilities face a Medium or High Climate Risk.

Spatial and sectoral benefit distribution in water-energy system design

Abstract: The design of water and energy systems has traditionally been done independently or considering simplified interdependencies between the two systems. This potentially misses valuable synergies between them and does not consider in detail the distribution of benefits between different sectors or regions. This paper presents a framework to couple integrated water-power network simulators with multi-objective optimisation under uncertainty to explore the implications of explicitly including spatial topology and interdependencies in the design of multi-sector integrated systems.

A synthetic case study that incorporates sectoral dependencies in resource allocation, operation of multi-purpose reservoirs and spatially distributed infrastructure selection in both systems is used. The importance of explicitly modelling the distribution of benefits across different sectors and regions is explored by comparing different spatially aggregated and disaggregated multi-objective optimisation formulations.

The results show the disaggregated formulation identifies a diverse set of non-dominated portfolios that enables addressing the spatial and sectoral distribution of benefits, whilst the aggregated formulations arbitrarily induce unintended biases. The proposed disaggregated approach allows for detailed spatial design of interlinked water and energy systems considering their complex regional and sectoral trade-offs. The framework is intended to assist planners in real resource systems where diverse stakeholder groups are mindful of receiving their fair share of development benefits.

Climate change impacts and costs to U.S. electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure

Abstract: This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure of the U.S. In particular, the model identifies changes in performance and longevity of physical infrastructure such as power poles and transformers, and quantifies these impacts in economic terms. This analysis was evaluated for the contiguous U.S, using five general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to analyze changes in damage and cost from the baseline period to the end of the century with three different adaptation strategies.

Total infrastructure costs were found to rise considerably, with annual climate change expenditures increasing by as much as 25%. The results demonstrate that climate impacts will likely be substantial, though this analysis only captures a portion of the total potential impacts. A proactive adaptation strategy resulted in the expected costs of climate change being reduced by as much as 50% by 2090, compared to a scenario without adaptation. Impacts vary across the contiguous U.S. with the highest impacts in parts of the Southeast and Northwest. Improvements and extensions to this analysis would help better inform climate resiliency policies and utility-level planning for the future.

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