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We present the organization, instrumentation, datasets, data interpretation, modeling, and accomplishments of the multinational global atmospheric measurement program AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment). AGAGE is distinguished by its capability to measure globally, at high frequency, and at multiple sites all the important species in the Montreal Protocol and all the important non-carbon-dioxide (non-CO2) gases assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (CO2 is also measured at several sites). The scientific objectives of AGAGE are important in furthering our understanding of global chemical and climatic phenomena. They are the following: (1) to accurately measure the temporal and spatial distributions of anthropogenic gases that contribute the majority of reactive halogen to the stratosphere and/or are strong infrared absorbers (chlorocarbons, chlorofluorocarbons – CFCs, bromocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons – HCFCs, hydrofluorocarbons – HFCs and polyfluorinated compounds (perfluorocarbons – PFCs), nitrogen trifluoride – NF3, sulfuryl fluoride – SO2F2, and sulfur hexafluoride – SF6) and use these measurements to determine the global rates of their emission and/or destruction (i.e., lifetimes); (2) to accurately measure the global distributions and temporal behaviors and determine the sources and sinks of non-CO2 biogenic–anthropogenic gases important to climate change and/or ozone depletion (methane – CH4, nitrous oxide – N2O, carbon monoxide – CO, molecular hydrogen – H2, methyl chloride – CH3Cl, and methyl bromide – CH3Br); (3) to identify new long-lived greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases (e.g., SO2F2, NF3, heavy PFCs (C4F10, C5F12, C6F14, C7F16, and C8F18) and hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs; e.g., CH2 = CFCF3) have been identified in AGAGE), initiate the real-time monitoring of these new gases, and reconstruct their past histories from AGAGE, air archive, and firn air measurements; (4) to determine the average concentrations and trends of tropospheric hydroxyl radicals (OH) from the rates of destruction of atmospheric trichloroethane (CH3CCl3), HFCs, and HCFCs and estimates of their emissions; (5) to determine from atmospheric observations and estimates of their destruction rates the magnitudes and distributions by region of surface sources and sinks of all measured gases; (6) to provide accurate data on the global accumulation of many of these trace gases that are used to test the synoptic-, regional-, and global-scale circulations predicted by three-dimensional models; and (7) to provide global and regional measurements of methane, carbon monoxide, and molecular hydrogen and estimates of hydroxyl levels to test primary atmospheric oxidation pathways at midlatitudes and the tropics. Network Information and Data Repository: http://agage.mit.edu/data or http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/ndps/alegage.html (https://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/atg.db1001).

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Measuring the greenhouse and ozone-depleting gas composition of the Earth’s atmosphere continuously for the past 40 years through a global network of sophisticated monitoring stations, the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE, formerly known as the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE) and Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE)) has racked up several notable achievements.

Anthropogenic emissions of aerosol particles likely cool the climate system. This study investigates uncertainty in the strength of the cooling effect by exploring the representation of aerosols in a global climate model. The researchers conclude that the specific representation of aerosols in global climate models has important implications for climate modelling. Important factors include the representation of aerosol mixing state, size distribution and optical properties.

Despite lawmaker interest in transitioning electricity systems toward renewable energy sources and in mitigating harmful air pollution, the extent to which sub-national renewable energy policies in the U.S. can improve air quality and human health remains unclear. This thesis develops a systemic modeling framework to assess the impacts of future renewable energy policy on air quality, as well as on the economy and on climate change, employing the framework of cost-benefit analysis. To model the chain of policy effects from impacts on the economy to power plant emissions, human health, and climate change, I integrate an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model, an atmospheric chemistry model, and methodologies for the economic valuation of health impacts. I apply this modeling framework to study the potential future impacts of the existing Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) in the U.S. Rust Belt region. This thesis also tests the impacts of alternative RPS stringency levels and assesses RPS impacts compared to carbon pricing, a climate policy favored by many economists.

I estimate that existing RPSs in this region generate health co-benefits that, in economic terms, exceed the climate change mitigation benefits of these policies. Estimated health co-benefits also outweigh the economic costs of the modeled policies, indicating that air quality co-benefits alone may justify RPS implementation. This work further finds that raising RPS stringency in the Rust Belt increases net policy benefits (air quality and climate benefits minus costs). However, I show that air quality co-benefits are highly sensitive to several assumptions such as the economic value assigned to premature mortalities and the magnitude of the health response expected from a given level of pollution. This thesis also estimates that carbon pricing generates greater air quality co-benefits for every ton of CO2 abated compared to an RPS, suggesting that carbon pricing may be more economically efficient (greater net benefits) relative to an RPS than previously thought. Finally, I show that RPSs have far-reaching economic impacts that have implications for their overall costs and benefits. This finding demonstrates the value of employing economy-wide models to understand the overall economic and environmental impacts of such sector-specific policies, and makes the case for a comprehensive, economy-wide approach for addressing air pollution and climate change.

In a study appearing in the Journal of Climate in 2016, MIT researchers found that a high coal-use future—in which today’s emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and black carbon aerosols from Asia’s industry, energy and domestic sectors are set to twice their year-2000 values from 2030 to 2100—would produce significant local and global climate impacts. The increased sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol levels would exert a large cooling effect throughout the Northern Hemisphere and particularly in South and East Asia, but also weaken several major monsoon systems, suppressing precipitation over vast land masses.

That study showed reductions in rainfall across much of Asia, especially East Asia (including China) and South Asia (including India), and a remote effect leading to a possible increase in rainfall in Australia as well as a decrease in rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa. Overall, higher aerosol levels would result in more reductions in rainfall than increases, particularly in regions that are already water-stressed.

Now, a new MIT study in Geophysical Research Letters that uses updated versions of the same global climate model (Community Earth System Model with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3) and covers a similar geographical area, but applies a far more rigorous statistical analysis of the results, has produced a slightly different conclusion. The researchers have found widespread cooling across the Northern Hemisphere and strong suppression of precipitation over East and Southeast Asia—just as in the previous study—but no clear evidence of remote effects on precipitation over Australia and West Africa.

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