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Uncertainty quantification of socio-economic outcomes can be combined with scenario discovery techniques to explore a full range of outcomes and provide insight into associated likelihoods while also identifying individual scenarios of interest. This unique approach quantifies multi-sector risks, which can aid decision-making about energy and technology choices and sectoral strategies.

The Science

DOE Highlight: Quantifying Socio-Economic Uncertainty

When the 2015 Paris Agreement set a long-term goal of keeping global warming “well below two degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels” to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, it did not specify how its nearly 200 signatory nations could collectively achieve that goal. Each nation was left to its own devices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in alignment with the 2°C target.

What choices does the world need to make to keep global warming below two degrees Celsius?

To avert the worst impacts of climate change, from extreme flooding to devastating droughts, the world will need to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the latest United Nations IPCC Report on the Earth’s climate system. Achieving that goal means that by around 2050, the planet’s total greenhouse gas emissions will need to decline to net-zero. To that end, more and more governments and businesses are setting net-zero emissions targets.

Global net-zero emissions goals: Challenges and opportunities

Currently, there is no magic bullet for fossil fuels—no one energy technology that can provide a cheap and reliable alternative capable of supporting the world’s growing energy needs. Instead, decision-makers looking to lower greenhouse gas emissions must choose from an expansive menu of technology and policy options, says MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Deputy Director Sergey Paltsev.

Scaling up low-carbon energy: Challenges and opportunities

Currently, there is no magic bullet for fossil fuels—no one energy technology that can provide a cheap and reliable alternative capable of supporting the world’s growing energy needs. Instead, decision-makers looking to lower greenhouse gas emissions must choose from an expansive menu of technology and policy options, says MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Deputy Director Sergey Paltsev.

MIT Joint Program Deputy Director Sergey Paltsev delivers keynote presentation on scaling up low-carbon energy at international energy symposium

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