Recent studies on the Amazon deforestation problem predict that removal of the forest will result in a higher surface temperature, a significant reduction in evaporation and precipitation, and possibly significant changes in the tropical circulation. Here, we discuss the basic mechanisms contributing to the response of the tropical atmosphere to deforestation. A simple linear model of the tropical atmosphere is used in studying the effects of deforestation on climate. It is suggested that the impact of large-scale deforestation on the circulation of the tropical atmosphere consists of two components: the response of the tropical circulation to the negative change in precipitation (heating), and the response of the same circulation to the positive change in surface temperature. Owing to their different signs, the changes in predicted temperature and precipitation excite competing responses working in opposite directions.

The predicted change in tropical circulation determines the change, if any, in atmospheric moisture convergence, which is equivalent to the change in run-off. The dependence of run-off predictions on the relative magnitudes of the predicted changes in precipitation and surface temperature implies that the predictions about run-off are highly sensitive, which explains, at least partly, the disagreement between the different models concerning the sign of the predicted change in Amazonian run-off.

© 1993 Royal Meteorological Society

The four chloromethanes - methyl chloride (CH3Cl), dichloromethane (CH2Cl2), chloroform (CHCl3), and carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), are chlorine-containing gases contributing significantly to stratospheric ozone depletion and having adverse health effects. Large uncertainties in estimates of their source and sink magnitudes and temporal and spatial variations currently exist. GEIA inventories and other bottom-up emission estimates are used to construct a priori maps of surface fluxes of these species. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry (MATCH), driven by NCEP interannually varying meteorological fields, is then used to simulate the trace gas mole fractions using the a priori emissions and to quantify the time series of sensitivities of tracer concentrations to different aseasonal, seasonal, and regional sources and sinks.

We implement the Kalman filter (with the unit pulse response method) to estimate both constant (if applicable) and time-varying surface fluxes on regional/global scales at a monthly resolution for the three short-lived species between 2000-2004, and the continental industrial emissions and global oceanic sink for CCl4 at a 3-month resolution between 1996-2004. The high frequency observations from AGAGE, SOGE, NIES and NOAA/GMD HATS and other low frequency flask observations are used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes estimated as multiplying factors for the a priori fluxes and contained in the state vector in the Kalman filter. The CH3Cl inversion results indicate large CH3Cl emissions of 2240 ± 370 Gg yr^-1 from tropical plants. The inversion implies greater seasonal oscillations of the natural sources and sink of CH3Cl compared to the a priori. Seasonal cycles have been derived for both the oceanic (for CHCl3 and CH2Cl2) and terrestrial (for CHCl3) sources, with summer maxima and winter minima emissions. Our inversion results show significant industrial sources of CH2Cl2 and CCl4 from the Southeast Asian region. Our inversions also exhibit the strong effects of the 2002/2003 globally wide-spread heat and drought conditions on the emissions of CH3Cl from tropical plants and global salt marshes, on the soil fluxes of CH3Cl and CHCl3, on the biomass burning sources of CH3Cl and CH2Cl2, and on the derived oceanic flux of CHCl3.
 

This paper provides an initial analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) based on the installation-level data for verified emissions and allowance allocations in the first 2 years of the first trading period. These data reveal that CO2 emissions were about 3% lower than the allocated allowances. The main objective of the paper is to shed light on the extent to which over-allocation and abatement have taken place in 2005 and 2006, when a significant CO2 price was observed. We propose a measure by which over-allocation can be judged and provide estimates of abatement based on emissions data and indicators of economic activity as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity. Finally, we discuss the insights and implications that emerge from this tentative assessment.

© 2008 Springer

The effects of air pollution on vegetation may provide an important control on the carbon cycle that has not yet been widely considered. Prolonged exposure to high levels of ozone, in particular, has been observed to inhibit photosynthesis by direct cellular damage within the leaves and through changes in stomatal conductance. We have incorporated empirical equations derived for trees (hardwoods and pines) and crops into the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model version 4.3 (TEM 4.3) to explore the effects of ozone on net primary production and carbon sequestration across the conterminous United States. Our results show up to a 5% reduction in Net Primary Production (NPP) in response to modeled historical ozone levels during the late 1980s to early 1990s. The largest decreases (over 20% in some locations) occur in the eastern U.S. and Midwest, during months with high ozone levels and high productivity. Carbon sequestration during the 1980s is reduced by 30 to 70 Tg C/yr with the presence of ozone, or 5 to 23% of recent estimates of the total carbon sequestration for the U.S. Thus the effects of ozone on NPP and carbon sequestration should be factored into future calculations of the U.S. carbon budget.