JP

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: A New Perspective in Precipitation Enhancement

Increased industrialization and human activity modified the atmospheric aerosol composition and size-distribution during the last several decades. This has affected the structure and evolution of clouds, and precipitation from them. The processes and mechanisms by which clouds and precipitation are modified by changes in aerosol composition and size-distribution are very intricate. The objective of this thesis is to improve the understanding of the processes and mechanisms through which the changes in aerosol concentrations impact the evolution of deep convective clouds and precipitation formation. We develop a new coupled model in which a very detailed model of aerosol activation is coupled to a three-dimensional cloud resolving model. This coupled model can accurately represent different kinds of aerosol populations. This coupled model is used to investigate the impact of changing aerosol concentrations on the dynamics, microphysical evolution and precipitation formation in deep convective clouds.

We examine the theories of aerosol activation, and the representation of aerosol activation in cloud models. The limitations of the extant methods of representation of aerosol activation in cloud models are evaluated. Then we descibe the components of the coupled model – Modified Eulerian and Lagrangian Aerosol Model (MELAM) and the Cloud Resolving Model (CRM). The features of these two component models with respect to aersol activation and cloud formation are discussed.

The evaluation of the coupled model by simulation of a deep convertive event observed during the INDian Ocean EXperiment (INDOEX) by statistcal comparison of observed and simulated cloud fields shows that the coupled model can simulate deep convective events reasonably well.

We present a study of the senstivity of the model to initial thermodynamic conditions (CAPE). Different initial thermodynamic conditons sampled during the IN- DOEX are used to initialize the coupled model and, the structure and evolution of the deep convective event are discussed. The study sheds new light on the respone of deep convection to CAPE. It is found that when the atmosphere has moderate CAPE, the precipitation forming processes are very active and when the CAPE is low or high, they are comparatively less efficient.

As the most important part of our study, we examine the response of deep convection to changing initial aerosol concentration. Different aerosol concentrations from those representing pristine to polluted atmospheres are considered. We look at the buoyancy of the cloud and the microphysical evolution. It is found that the dynamics and microphysics are tightly coupled and we infer that to understand aerosol-cloud interactions in deep convective clouds, both – dynamics and microphysics – and their interaction have to be taken into consideration.

Our results show that the response of a deep convective cloud to changing aerosol concentration is very different from the much well understood reponse of shallow clouds or small cumulus clouds. In general, increase in aerosol concentratin is seen to invigorate convection and lead to greater condensate. Although the cloud droplet size decreases, collision-coalescence is not completely inefficient. The precipitation in high aerosol regime is seen to occure in short spells of intense rain.

A very interesting anomalous response of deep convection to initial aerosol concentration is observed at intermediate aerosol concentrations. The cloud lifetime, and precipitation are seen to increase in this regime. A possible mechanism to explain this anomalous behavior is proposed and the available circumstantial support for the mechanism from extant observations is presented. It is proposed that the efficient collection of rain and cloud droplets by ice and graupel particles in the middle troposphere is primarily responsible for this increased cloud lifetime and precipitation.

Agricultural impact assessment, vulnerability, and the scope for adaptation

Climate change assessments which have considered climate impacts of a 2xCO2 climate, using models of the global agricultural system, have found small impacts on overall production, but larger regional changes. Production shifts among regions can be considered one mechanism for adaptation. Adaptation at the farm level, through changes in crops, cultivars, and production practices, is another adaptation mechanism. Existing studies differ in how important these mechanisms will be. Studies that have considered yield effects at specific sites have found very wide ranges of impacts. A useful way to evaluate the impacts of climate change, given the uncertainty about future impacts, is to consider vulnerability. Studies have defined vulnerability in terms of yield, farm profitability, regional economy, and hunger. Vulnerability and climate impacts, particularly in terms of higher order effects on profitability and sustainability, will depend on how society and the economy develop. Lower income populations and marginal agricultural regions, particularly arid or flood prone areas, are most vulnerable to climate change.

Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree?

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty.

Air Pollution Health Effects: Toward an Integrated Assessment

Market and non-market effects of air pollution on human health are estimated for the U.S. for the period from 1970 to 2000. The pollutants include tropospheric ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter. We develop a methodology for integrating the health effects from exposure to air pollution into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the economy that has been widely used to study climate change policy. Benefits of air pollution regulations in USA rose steadily from 1975 to 2000 from $50 billion to $400 billion (from 2.1% to 7.6% of market consumption). Our estimated benefits of regulation are somewhat lower than the original estimates made by the US Environmental Protection Agency, and we trace that result to our development of a stock model of pollutant exposure that predicts that the benefits from reduced chronic air pollution exposure will only be gradually realized. We also estimate the economic burden of uncontrolled levels of air pollution over that period. The estimate of economic benefits and damages depends on the validity of the underlying epidemiological relationships and direct estimates of the consequences of health effects such as lost work and non-work time and increased medical expenses. (© Springer 2006)

Air Quality Improvements and Carbon Dioxide Reduction Policies: A Method for Assessing Secondary Benefits

Air quality resolution for health impact assessment: influence of regional characteristics

We evaluate how regional characteristics of population and background pollution might impact the selection of optimal air quality model resolution when calculating the human health impacts of changes to air quality. Using an approach consistent with air quality policy evaluation, we use a regional chemical transport model (CAMx) and a health benefit mapping program (BenMAP) to calculate the human health impacts associated with changes in ozone and fine particulate matter resulting from an emission reduction scenario. We evaluate this same scenario at 36, 12 and 4 km resolution for nine regions in the eastern US representing varied characteristics. We find that the human health benefits associated with changes in ozone concentrations are sensitive to resolution. This finding is especially strong in urban areas where we estimate that benefits calculated using coarse resolution results are on average two times greater than benefits calculated using finer scale results. In three urban areas we analyzed, results calculated using 36 km resolution modeling fell outside the uncertainty range of results calculated using finer scale modeling. In rural areas the influence of resolution is less pronounced with only an 8% increase in the estimated health impacts when using 36 km resolution over finer scales. In contrast, health benefits associated with changes in PM2.5 concentrations were not sensitive to resolution and did not follow a pattern based on any regional characteristics evaluated. The largest difference between the health impacts estimated using 36 km modeling results and either 12 or 4 km results was at most ±10% in any region. Several regions showed increases in estimated benefits as resolution increased (opposite the impact seen with ozone modeling), while some regions showed decreases in estimated benefits as resolution increased. In both cases, the dominant contribution was from secondary PM. Additionally, we found that the health impacts calculated using several individual concentration–response functions varied by a larger amount than the impacts calculated using results modeled at different resolutions. Given that changes in PM2.5 dominate the human health impacts, and given the uncertainty associated with human health response to changes in air pollution, we conclude that, when estimating the human health benefits associated with decreases in ozone and PM2.5 together, the benefits calculated at 36 km resolution agree, within errors, with the benefits calculated using fine (12 km or finer) resolution modeling when using the current methodology for assessing policy decisions.

Allocation in the European Emissions Trading Scheme: Rights, Rents, and Fairness

A critical issue in dealing with climate change is deciding who has a right to emit carbon dioxide. Allocation in the European Emissions Trading Scheme provides the first in-depth description and analysis of the process by which rights to emit carbon dioxide were created and distributed in the European Union. This is the world's first large-scale experiment with an emission trading system for carbon dioxide and is likely to be copied by others if there is to be a global regime for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The book consists of contributions from those who were responsible for putting the allocation into practice in ten representative member states and at the European Commission. The problems encountered in this process, the solutions found, and the choices they made, will be of interest to all who are concerned with climate policy and the use of emissions trading to combat climate change.

Allocation Issues in Greenhouse Gas Cap and Trade Systems

Prof. Gilbert Metcalf, a Research Associate of the MIT Global Change Program, testifies that enacting a carbon price through a greenhouse gas emissions cap and trade system will help the United States move to a carbon free economy in the most efficient manner possible. He argues that passing cap and trade legislation should be at the top of the political agenda for Congress and the Administration. (Hearing Schedule)

An adjoint analysis of meridional overturning circulation in an ocean model

Using the adjoint of a fully three-dimensional primitive equation ocean model in an idealized geometry, spatial variations in the sensitivity to surface boundary forcing of the meridional overturning circulation’s strength are studied. Steady-state sensitivities to diapycnal mixing, wind stress, freshwater, and heat forcing are examined. Three different, commonly used, boundary-forcing scenarios are studied, both with and without wind forcing. Almost identical circulation is achieved in each scenario, but the sensitivity patterns show major (quantitative and qualitative) differences. Sensitivities to surface forcing and diapycnal mixing are substantially larger under mixed boundary conditions, in which fluxes of freshwater and heat are supplemented by a temperature relaxation term or under flux boundary conditions, in which climatological fluxes alone drive the circulation, than under restoring boundary conditions. The sensitivity pattern to diapycnal mixing, which peaks in the Tropics is similar both with and without wind forcing. Wind does, however, increase the sensitivity to diapycnal mixing in the regions of Ekman upwelling and decreases it in the regions of Ekman downwelling. Wind stress in the Southern Oceans plays a crucial role in restoring boundary conditions, but the effect is largely absent under mixed or flux boundary conditions. The results highlight how critical a careful formulation of the surface forcing terms is to ensuring a proper response to changes in forcing in ocean models.

An adjoint analysis of the meridional overturning circulation in a hybrid coupled model

Multicentury sensitivities in a realistic geometry global ocean general circulation model are analyzed using an adjoint technique. This paper takes advantage of the adjoint model’s ability to generate maps of the sensitivity of a diagnostic (i.e., the meridional overturning’s strength) to all model parameters. This property of adjoints is used to review several theories, which have been elaborated to explain the strength of the North Atlantic’s meridional overturning. This paper demonstrates the profound impact of boundary conditions in permitting or suppressing mechanisms within a realistic model of the contemporary ocean circulation. For example, the so-called Drake Passage Effect in which wind stress in the Southern Ocean acts as the main driver of the overturning’s strength, is shown to be an artifact of boundary conditions that restore the ocean’s surface temperature and salinity toward prescribed climatologies. Advective transports from the Indian and Pacific basins play an important role in setting the strength of the overturning circulation under “mixed” boundary conditions, in which a flux of freshwater is specified at the ocean’s surface.

The most “realistic” regime couples an atmospheric energy and moisture balance model to the ocean. In this configuration, inspection of the global maps of sensitivity to wind stress and diapycnal mixing suggests a significant role for near-surface Ekman processes in the Tropics. Buoyancy also plays an important role in setting the overturning’s strength, through direct thermal forcing near the sites of convection, or through the advection of salinity anomalies in the Atlantic basin.

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