Abstract: Mercury is a potent neurotoxin that poses health risks to the global population. Anthropogenic mercury emissions to the atmosphere are projected to decrease in the future due to enhanced policy efforts such as the Minamata Convention, a legally-binding international treaty entered into force in 2017.

Here we report the development of a comprehensive climate-atmosphere-land-ocean-ecosystem and exposure-risk model framework for mercury and its application to project the health effects of future atmospheric emissions. Our results show that the accumulated health effects associated with mercury exposure during 2010-2050 are $19 (95% confidence interval: 4.7-54) trillion (2020 USD) realized to 2050 (3% discount rate) for the current policy scenario.

Our results suggest a substantial increase in global human health cost if emission reduction actions are delayed. This comprehensive modeling approach provides a much-needed tool to help parties to evaluate the effectiveness of Hg emission controls as required by the Minamata Convention.

Abstract: This paper presents EleMod, an annual recursive-dynamic regional electric power capacity expansion and hourly operation model, which has been formulated to assess the evolution over time of the energy mix of a power system, in terms of capacity and generation, with increasing penetration of intermittent generation such as wind or solar photovoltaic.

The model includes interregional transmission. It also includes low carbon technologies such as utility-scale storage, carbon capture and sequestration for fossil-based plants, and nuclear technologies. By ether minimizing the total cost of producing electricity or maximizing the total system welfare, the model is designed to calculate marginal prices for the wholesale supply of energy in the short-term, and also the prices for the provision of guaranteeing of supply and operating reserves. The EleMod model considers the hourly variability of intermittent resources (wind and solar) and hydro resources, and also an hourly variability of regional electricity demand as well.

This simulation tool can be used to understand the long-term adaptation of a power system to the penetration of intermittent generation and to the evolving climate and energy policies in the U.S. It also can be used to assess the short-term operational decisions of the system in response to the long-term planning. The model can also serve to estimate CO₂ prices and regional hourly marginal prices, and more general generation and emissions pathways under various costs and policy scenarios.

Abstract: We assess the contribution of India’s hard-to-abate sectors to the country’s current emissions and their likely future trajectory of development under different policy regimes. We employ an enhanced version of the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to explicitly represent the following hard-to-abate sectors: iron and steel, non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, etc.), non-metallic minerals (cement, plaster, lime, etc.), and chemicals.

We find that without additional policies, the Paris Agreement pledges made by India for the year 2030 still can lead to an increasing use of fossil fuels and corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with projected CO2 emissions from hard-to-abate sectors growing by about 2.6 times from 2020 to 2050. Scenarios with electrification, natural gas support, or increased resource efficiency lead to a decrease in emissions from these sectors by 15-20% in 2050, but without carbon pricing (or disruptive technology changes) emissions are not reduced relative to their current levels due to growth in output.

Carbon pricing that makes carbon capture and storage (CCS) economically competitive is critical for achieving substantial emissions reductions in hard-to-abate sectors, enabling emissionsreductions of 80% by 2050 relative to the scenario without additional policies.