Regional Analysis

Evaluating India’s climate targets: the implications of economy-wide and sector specific policies

MIT Joint Program research assistant Arun Singh, a master’s degree student in the Institute for Data, Systems and Society’s Technology and Policy Program (TPP), has analyzed climate policy options for India by building and applying a model of the Indian economy with detailed representation of the electricity sector.

Developed with his advisors, MIT Sloan School of Management Assistant Professor Valerie Karplus and MIT Joint Program Principal Research Scientist Niven Winchester, the model enables researchers to gauge the cost-effectiveness and efficiency of different technology and policy choices designed to transition India to a low-carbon energy system. Singh used the model to assess the economic, energy, and emissions impacts of implementing India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement — which aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions intensity by 33 to 35 percent from 2005 levels and increase non-fossil based electric power to about 40 percent of installed capacity by 2030.

Singh determined that compared to a no-policy scenario in 2030, the average cost per unit of emissions reduced is lowest under a carbon dioxide (CO2) pricing regime. Adding a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) to simulate electricity capacity targets increases the cost by more than ten times. Projected electricity demand in 2030 decreases by 8% under the CO2 price, while introducing an RPS further suppresses electricity demand. Importantly, a reduction in the costs of wind and solar power induced by favorable policies may result in cost convergence across instruments, paving the way for more aggressive decarbonization policies in the future.

Over the past three years, J-WAFS seed funding has catalyzed a diverse portfolio of MIT research relevant to water and food—spanning fundamental science, engineering and technology, supply chains, big data, business models, development efforts, economics, urban design and infrastructure, and more.  This fall, just as we were distributing our fourth call for proposals, our very first round of seed grant projects—beginning in 2015—came to a close.  As these inaugural projects end and others begin, we'd like to take a moment to highlight and celebrate the achievements the J-WAFS-funded MIT fac

J-WAFS' inaugural seed grant projects come to a close

When global oil prices declined dramatically in 2014 and 2015, leading energy analysts expected that oil production in the United States—consisting primarily of “tight oil” extracted from rock formations by means of massive hydraulic fracturing—would likewise decrease due to relatively high production costs. Despite prospects for a negative return on investment, however, U.S. tight oil production continued almost unabated. Perplexed by this development, a team of researchers sought to better understand the relationship between oil prices and production volumes.

Charting the future of oil and gas in a decarbonizing world
Tight Oil Market Dynamics: Benchmarks, Breakeven Points, and Inelasticities

When global oil prices declined dramatically in 2014 and 2015, leading energy analysts expected that oil production in the United States—consisting primarily of “tight oil” extracted from rock formations by means of massive hydraulic fracturing—would likewise decrease due to relatively high production costs. Despite prospects for a negative return on investment, however, U.S. tight oil production continued almost unabated. Perplexed by this development, a team of researchers sought to better understand the relationship between oil prices and production volumes. In particular, they aimed to pinpoint those factors that determine the “breakeven” points of tight oil production projects—essentially the oil price points at which revenue from sales equals the cost of production.

Though energy industry analysts have widely used breakeven costs to predict how oil producers will respond to changing market conditions and to assess the economic viability of proposed oil and gas development projects, they have routinely defined them imprecisely and inconsistently. This has resulted in predictions of limited utility and reliability. To enable more robust predictions, the researchers, who work for Schlumberger-Doll Research, the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, the Atlantic Council, the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, and the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs, have developed a systematic method to understand the costs of oil production and how they change with time and circumstances. Applying this method, they have proposed a set of standard definitions for breakeven points at different stages of the oil production cycle.

The MIT Joint Program is collaborating with King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST) to conduct numerical experiments with a high-resolution regional climate model (WRF) over the Arabian Peninsula, with the objective of assessing the environmental impacts and urban water-resource risks of a changing climate, and the benefits of mitigation and adaptation. This project is funded via the MIT Sociotechnical Systems Research Center.

Identifying Threats and Reducing Risks of Health Damage from Dust Storms Under a Changing Climate Across the Arabian Peninsula

Critical to our ability to survive and thrive for generations to come is ongoing access to adequate supplies of clean, fresh water. For the foreseeable future, significant freshwater withdrawals will be needed for irrigation, thermal power plant cooling, and myriad industrial and residential uses. But in many regions, socioeconomic and environmental pressures pose growing threats to both the quantity and quality of local water resources. In order to take effective action to mitigate and/or adapt to rising risks, decision-makers will need robust, prediction-based strategies and tools.

Water Resource Risks: Integrated Approaches to Support Actions

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