Regional Analysis

Renewable energy transition in the Turkish power sector: A techno-economic analysis with a high-resolution power expansion model, TR-Power

Abstract: The Turkish power sector achieved a rapid growth after the 1990s in line with economic growth and even beyond. However, this development was not supported by domestic resources and therefore culminated in a high dependency on imported fossil fuels. Over and above, the governments were slow of the mark in introducing policies for increasing the share of renewable energy. Nevertheless, even late actions of the government, as well as significant decreases in the cost of wind and especially solar technologies, have recently brought the Turkish power sector in a promising state. In this study, a large-scale generation expansion power system model (TR-Power) with a high temporal resolution (hours) is developed for the Turkish power generation sector. Several prospective scenarios (high penetration of renewable resources, limiting constraints on GHG emissions, and changes in subsidy schemes on renewable and local resources) were analyzed for assessing their environmental and economic impacts. The results indicate that a transition to a low-carbon power grid with around half of the electricity demand satisfied by renewable resources over a 25-year period would be possible with annual investments of 4.25 to 7.10 Billion 2019 US$. Moreover, TR-Power indicates that the shadow price of CO2 emissions in the power sector will be around 13.8 and 34.0 $/per tCO2 by 2042 under 30% and 40% emission reduction targets relative to the reference scenario.

Spatial and sectoral benefit distribution in water-energy system design

Abstract: The design of water and energy systems has traditionally been done independently or considering simplified interdependencies between the two systems. This potentially misses valuable synergies between them and does not consider in detail the distribution of benefits between different sectors or regions. This paper presents a framework to couple integrated water-power network simulators with multi-objective optimisation under uncertainty to explore the implications of explicitly including spatial topology and interdependencies in the design of multi-sector integrated systems.

A synthetic case study that incorporates sectoral dependencies in resource allocation, operation of multi-purpose reservoirs and spatially distributed infrastructure selection in both systems is used. The importance of explicitly modelling the distribution of benefits across different sectors and regions is explored by comparing different spatially aggregated and disaggregated multi-objective optimisation formulations.

The results show the disaggregated formulation identifies a diverse set of non-dominated portfolios that enables addressing the spatial and sectoral distribution of benefits, whilst the aggregated formulations arbitrarily induce unintended biases. The proposed disaggregated approach allows for detailed spatial design of interlinked water and energy systems considering their complex regional and sectoral trade-offs. The framework is intended to assist planners in real resource systems where diverse stakeholder groups are mindful of receiving their fair share of development benefits.

Climate change impacts and costs to U.S. electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure

Abstract: This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure of the U.S. In particular, the model identifies changes in performance and longevity of physical infrastructure such as power poles and transformers, and quantifies these impacts in economic terms. This analysis was evaluated for the contiguous U.S, using five general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to analyze changes in damage and cost from the baseline period to the end of the century with three different adaptation strategies.

Total infrastructure costs were found to rise considerably, with annual climate change expenditures increasing by as much as 25%. The results demonstrate that climate impacts will likely be substantial, though this analysis only captures a portion of the total potential impacts. A proactive adaptation strategy resulted in the expected costs of climate change being reduced by as much as 50% by 2090, compared to a scenario without adaptation. Impacts vary across the contiguous U.S. with the highest impacts in parts of the Southeast and Northwest. Improvements and extensions to this analysis would help better inform climate resiliency policies and utility-level planning for the future.

Switching on auxiliary devices in vehicular fuel efficiency tests can help cut CO2 emissions by millions of tons

Abstract: Enhancing automobile fuel efficiency is crucial to decarbonizing the transport sector. Recent studies have revealed a gap between real-world fuel efficiency and results from laboratory tests, where “off-cycle” auxiliary devices, like air conditioning (AC) systems, are not turned on. AC consumes the most energy among all off-cycle devices; however, the exact contribution of AC to fuel consumption remains unclear.

Here, by analyzing 1 million trip-level fuel efficiency records from China, we show that AC use when the temperature exceeds 25°C increases gasoline consumption annually by 1.3%. The amount differs across car models, with those produced by Chinese manufacturers showing relatively lower AC efficiency. Improving AC efficiency could cost-effectively reduce CO2 emissions by 1.6–2.4 million tons in China every year.

Therefore, we suggest integrating off-cycle devices into future fuel efficiency regulations, which will reveal the fuel efficiency gap, incentivize car manufacturers to develop high-efficiency devices, and further tap this emissions reduction potential.

Improving Evaluation of Energy Policies with Multiple Goals: Comparing Ex Ante and Ex Post Approaches

Abstract: Sustainability policies are often motivated by the potential to achieve multiple goals, such as simultaneously mitigating the climate change and air quality impacts of energy use. Ex ante analysis is used prospectively to inform policy decisions by estimating a policy’s impact on multiple objectives. In contrast, ex post analysis of impacts that may have multiple causes can retrospectively evaluate the effectiveness of policies. Ex ante analyses are rarely compared with ex post evaluations of the same policy. These comparisons can assess the realism of assumptions in ex ante methods and reveal opportunities for improving prospective analyses.

We illustrate the benefits of such a comparison by examining a case of two energy policies in China. Using ex post analysis, we estimate the impacts of two policies, one that targets energy intensity and another that imposes quantitative targets on SO2 emissions, on energy use and pollution outcomes in two major energy-intensive industrial sectors (cement, iron and steel) in China.

We find that the ex post effects of the energy intensity policy on both energy and pollution outcomes are very limited on average, while the effects of the SO2 emissions policy are large. Compared with ex ante analysis, ex post estimates of benefits of the energy intensity policy are on average smaller, and differ by location in both sign and magnitude. Accounting for firm-level heterogeneity in production processes and policy responses, as well as the use of empirically grounded counterfactual baselines, can improve the realism of ex ante analysis and thus provide a more reliable basis for policy design.

The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia

Abstract: The adequacy of freshwater resources remains a critical challenge for a sustainable and growing society. We present a self-consistent risk-based assessment of water availability and use under future climate change and socioeconomic growth by midcentury across southern and eastern Asia (SEA). We employ large ensemble scenarios from an integrated modeling framework that are consistent across the spectrum of regional climate, population, and economic projections. We find socioeconomic growth contributes to an increase in water stress across the entire ensemble. However, climate change drives the ensemble central tendency toward an increase in water stress in China but a reduction in India, with a considerable spread across the ensemble. Nevertheless, the most deleterious unabated climate-change impact is a low probability but salient extreme increase in water stress over China and India. In these outcomes, annual withdrawals will routinely exceed water-storage capacity. A modest greenhouse gas mitigation pathway eliminates the likelihood of these extreme outcomes and also benefits hundreds of millions of people at risk to various levels of water stress increase. Over SEA we estimate an additional 200 million people under threat of facing at least heavily water-stressed conditions from climate change and socioeconomic growth, but the mitigation scenario reduces the additional population-under-threat by 30% (60 million). Nevertheless, there remains a 1-in-2 chance that 100 million people across SEA experience a 50% increase in water stress and a 1-in-10 chance they experience a doubling of water stress. Therefore, widespread adaptive measures may be required over the coming decades to meet these unavoidable risks in water shortfalls.

Utility-scale portable energy storage systems

Abstract: Battery storage is expected to play a crucial role in the low-carbon transformation of energy systems. The deployment of battery storage in the power grid, however, is currently limited by its low economic viability, which results from not only high capital costs but also the lack of flexible and efficient utilization schemes and business models.

Making utility-scale battery storage portable through trucking unlocks its capability to provide various on-demand services. We introduce the potential applications of utility-scale portable energy storage and investigate its economics in California using a spatiotemporal decision model that determines the optimal operation and transportation schedules of portable storage.

We show that mobilizing energy storage can increase its life-cycle revenues by 70% in some areas and improve renewable energy integration by relieving local transmission congestion. The life-cycle revenue of spatiotemporal arbitrage can fully compensate for the costs of a portable energy storage system in several regions in California.

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