Abstract: The Turkish power sector achieved rapid growth after the 1990s in line with economic growth and beyond. However, domestic resources did not support this development and therefore resulted in a high dependency on imported fossil fuels. Furthermore, the governments were slow off the mark in introducing policies for increasing the share of renewable energy. Even late actions of the governments, as well as significant decreases in the cost of wind and especially solar technologies, have recently brought the Turkish power sector into a promising state.

A large-scale generation-expansion power-system model (TR-Power) with a high temporal resolution (hours) is developed for the Turkish power generation sector. Several scenarios were analyzed to assess their environmental and economic impacts.

 

The results indicate that a transition to a low-carbon power grid with around half of the electricity demand satisfied by renewable resources over 25 years would be possible, with annual investments of 3.97–6.88 billion in 2019 US$. Moreover, TR-Power indicates that the shadow price of CO₂ emissions in the power sector will be around 17.1 and 33.8 $/per tCO2 by 2042, under 30% and 40% emission reduction targets relative to the reference scenario.

 

Author's Highlights: 

• A large-scale generation expansion power system model with a high temporal resolution (hours).

• Seventeen scenarios including various growth paths, subsidy schemes, and constraints on the emissions.

• Half of the total load demand would be satisfied by renewables either by introducing a subsidy scheme or a carbon tax.

 

• CO₂ price will be around ∼17 and ∼34 $/per tCO₂ by 2042 under 30% and 40% emission reduction.

 

• Renewable share would be increased by nearly 10% with an additional annual investment of 887 M 2019 US$.