Large Mitigation Potential of Smoke PM2.5 in the US from Human-Ignited Wildfires and Agricultural Fires

Conference Proceedings Paper
Large Mitigation Potential of Smoke PM2.5 in the US from Human-Ignited Wildfires and Agricultural Fires
Carter, T.S., C.L. Heald and N.E. Selin (2022)
American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting, B56D-02

Abstract/Summary:

Abstract: Increasing fire activity and the associated degradation in air quality in the United States has been indirectly linked to human activity via climate change. In addition, the direct attribution of fires to human or natural causes provides potential for near term smoke mitigation. We quantify the contribution of agricultural fires and human ignited wildfires to smoke emissions in the United States using the GFED4s inventory combined with the US Forest Service Fire Program Analysis-Fire Occurrence Database. We use the GEOS-Chem model to simulate how fires driven by these two human levers impact fire particulate matter under 2.5 microns (PM2.5) concentrations in the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2003 to 2018. We find that these human-driven fires dominate fire PM2.5 in both a high fire and human ignition year (2018) and low fire and human ignition year (2003). Across CONUS, human drivers of fire account for more than 80% of the population-weighted exposure and premature deaths associated with fire PM2.5. These findings indicate that a large portion of the smoke exposure and impacts in CONUS are driven by human activities with large mitigation potential that could be the focus of future management choices and policymaking.

Citation:

Carter, T.S., C.L. Heald and N.E. Selin (2022): Large Mitigation Potential of Smoke PM2.5 in the US from Human-Ignited Wildfires and Agricultural Fires. American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting, B56D-02 (https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm22/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1056857)
  • Conference Proceedings Paper
Large Mitigation Potential of Smoke PM2.5 in the US from Human-Ignited Wildfires and Agricultural Fires

Carter, T.S., C.L. Heald and N.E. Selin

Abstract/Summary: 

Abstract: Increasing fire activity and the associated degradation in air quality in the United States has been indirectly linked to human activity via climate change. In addition, the direct attribution of fires to human or natural causes provides potential for near term smoke mitigation. We quantify the contribution of agricultural fires and human ignited wildfires to smoke emissions in the United States using the GFED4s inventory combined with the US Forest Service Fire Program Analysis-Fire Occurrence Database. We use the GEOS-Chem model to simulate how fires driven by these two human levers impact fire particulate matter under 2.5 microns (PM2.5) concentrations in the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2003 to 2018. We find that these human-driven fires dominate fire PM2.5 in both a high fire and human ignition year (2018) and low fire and human ignition year (2003). Across CONUS, human drivers of fire account for more than 80% of the population-weighted exposure and premature deaths associated with fire PM2.5. These findings indicate that a large portion of the smoke exposure and impacts in CONUS are driven by human activities with large mitigation potential that could be the focus of future management choices and policymaking.

Posted to public: 

Thursday, October 6, 2022 - 19:31