Summary: This study examines how climate change impacts and global mitigation policies relate to the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia, the co-authors apply a biophysical and economic modeling approach that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical and economic outcomes across a wide range of global mitigation policy scenarios.

The researchers find that effective global mitigation policies generate two key benefits for these nations: (1) more favorable and less variable economic outcomes due to mitigation of climate impacts, and (2) reduced global fossil fuel production prices, relative to an unconstrained emissions scenario, leading to significantly reduced fuel import costs. Combined, these economic benefits exceed projected mitigation costs for each country. These results show that for most energy-importing developing countries, global mitigation policies are advantageous even in the relatively near term, with much larger benefits accruing after 2050.