Climate extremes and ozone pollution: a growing threat to China's food security

Joint Program Reprint • Journal Article
 • China Energy & Climate Project
Climate extremes and ozone pollution: a growing threat to China's food security
Tian, H., W. Ren, B. Tao, G. Sun, A. Chappelka, X. Wang, S. Pan, J. Yang, J. Liu, B.S. Felzer, J.M. Melillo and J. Reilly (2016)
Ecosystem Health and Sustainability, 2(1): e01203 (doi:10.1002/ehs2.1203)

Reprint 2016-3 [Download]

Abstract/Summary:

Ensuring global food security requires a sound understanding of climate and environmental controls on crop productivity. The majority of existing assessments have focused on physical climate variables (i.e., mean temperature and precipitation), but less on the increasing climate extremes (e.g., drought) and their interactions with increasing levels of tropospheric ozone (O3). Here we quantify the combined impacts of drought and O3 on China's crop yield using a comprehensive, process-based agricultural ecosystem model in conjunction with observational data. Our results indicate that climate change/variability and O3 together led to an annual mean reduction of crop yield by 10.0% or 55 million tons per year at the national level during 1981–2010. Crop yield shows a growing threat from severe episodic droughts and increasing O3 concentrations since 2000, with the largest crop yield losses occurring in northern China, causing serious concerns in food supply security in China. Our results imply that reducing tropospheric O3 levels is critical for securing crop production in coping with increasing frequency and severity of extreme climate events such as droughts. Improving air quality should be a core component of climate adaptation strategies.

Citation:

Tian, H., W. Ren, B. Tao, G. Sun, A. Chappelka, X. Wang, S. Pan, J. Yang, J. Liu, B.S. Felzer, J.M. Melillo and J. Reilly (2016): Climate extremes and ozone pollution: a growing threat to China's food security. Ecosystem Health and Sustainability, 2(1): e01203 (doi:10.1002/ehs2.1203) (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ehs2.1203/abstract)
  • Joint Program Reprint
  • Journal Article
China Project
Climate extremes and ozone pollution: a growing threat to China's food security

Tian, H., W. Ren, B. Tao, G. Sun, A. Chappelka, X. Wang, S. Pan, J. Yang, J. Liu, B.S. Felzer, J.M. Melillo and J. Reilly

2016-3
2(1): e01203 (doi:10.1002/ehs2.1203)

Abstract/Summary: 

Ensuring global food security requires a sound understanding of climate and environmental controls on crop productivity. The majority of existing assessments have focused on physical climate variables (i.e., mean temperature and precipitation), but less on the increasing climate extremes (e.g., drought) and their interactions with increasing levels of tropospheric ozone (O3). Here we quantify the combined impacts of drought and O3 on China's crop yield using a comprehensive, process-based agricultural ecosystem model in conjunction with observational data. Our results indicate that climate change/variability and O3 together led to an annual mean reduction of crop yield by 10.0% or 55 million tons per year at the national level during 1981–2010. Crop yield shows a growing threat from severe episodic droughts and increasing O3 concentrations since 2000, with the largest crop yield losses occurring in northern China, causing serious concerns in food supply security in China. Our results imply that reducing tropospheric O3 levels is critical for securing crop production in coping with increasing frequency and severity of extreme climate events such as droughts. Improving air quality should be a core component of climate adaptation strategies.