Non-Nuclear, Low-Carbon, or Both? The Case of Taiwan

Joint Program Report
Non-Nuclear, Low-Carbon, or Both? The Case of Taiwan
Chen, Y.-H.H. (2012)
Joint Program Report Series, 29 p.

Report 235 [Download]

Abstract/Summary:

The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan has renewed debates on the safety of nuclear power, possibly hurting the role of nuclear power in efforts to limit CO2 emissions. I develop a dynamic economy-wide model of Taiwan with a detailed set of technology options in the power sector to examine the implications of adopting different nuclear power policies on CO2 emissions and the economy. Absent a carbon mitigation target, limiting nuclear power has a small economic cost for Taiwan, but CO2 emissions may increase by more than 3.5% by 2035 when nuclear is replaced by fossil-based generation. With a low-carbon target of a 50% reduction from year 2000 levels by 2050, if the nuclear option and carbon sequestration are not viable, gas-fired power would provide almost 90% of electricity output due to the limited renewable resources. In particular, wind power would account for 1.6% to 4.9% of that output, depending on how it relies on other back-up capacities. With both non-nuclear and low-carbon policies, deploying carbon sequestration on fossil-based generation can significantly reduce the negative GDP impact on the economy. Lastly, lowering carbon mitigation costs further is possible with expanded nuclear capacity.

Citation:

Chen, Y.-H.H. (2012): Non-Nuclear, Low-Carbon, or Both? The Case of Taiwan. Joint Program Report Series Report 235, 29 p. (http://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/15920)
  • Joint Program Report
Non-Nuclear, Low-Carbon, or Both? The Case of Taiwan

Chen, Y.-H.H.

Report 

235
29 p.
2016

Abstract/Summary: 

The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan has renewed debates on the safety of nuclear power, possibly hurting the role of nuclear power in efforts to limit CO2 emissions. I develop a dynamic economy-wide model of Taiwan with a detailed set of technology options in the power sector to examine the implications of adopting different nuclear power policies on CO2 emissions and the economy. Absent a carbon mitigation target, limiting nuclear power has a small economic cost for Taiwan, but CO2 emissions may increase by more than 3.5% by 2035 when nuclear is replaced by fossil-based generation. With a low-carbon target of a 50% reduction from year 2000 levels by 2050, if the nuclear option and carbon sequestration are not viable, gas-fired power would provide almost 90% of electricity output due to the limited renewable resources. In particular, wind power would account for 1.6% to 4.9% of that output, depending on how it relies on other back-up capacities. With both non-nuclear and low-carbon policies, deploying carbon sequestration on fossil-based generation can significantly reduce the negative GDP impact on the economy. Lastly, lowering carbon mitigation costs further is possible with expanded nuclear capacity.