Analyzing the Regional Impact of a Fossil Energy Cap in China

Joint Program Report
 • China Energy & Climate Project
Analyzing the Regional Impact of a Fossil Energy Cap in China
Zhang, D., V. Karplus, S. Rausch and X. Zhang (2013)
Joint Program Report Series, 25 p.

Report 237 [Download]

Abstract/Summary:

Decoupling fossil energy demand from economic growth is crucial to China’s sustainable development. In addition to energy and carbon intensity targets enacted under the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), a coal or fossil energy cap is under discussion as a way to constrain the absolute quantity of energy used. Importantly, implementation of such a cap may be compatible with existing policies and institutions. We evaluate the efficiency and distributional implications of alternative energy cap designs using a numerical general equilibrium model of China’s economy, built on the 2007 regional input-output tables for China and the Global Trade Analysis Project global data set. We find that a national cap on fossil energy implemented through a tax on final energy products and an energy saving allowance trading market is the most costeffective design, while a regional coal-only cap is the least cost-effective design. We further find that a regional coal cap results in large welfare losses in some provinces. Capping fossil energy use at the national level is found to be nearly as cost effective as a national CO2 emissions target that penalizes energy use based on carbon content.

Citation:

Zhang, D., V. Karplus, S. Rausch and X. Zhang (2013): Analyzing the Regional Impact of a Fossil Energy Cap in China. Joint Program Report Series Report 237, 25 p. (http://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/15666)
  • Joint Program Report
China Project
Analyzing the Regional Impact of a Fossil Energy Cap in China

Zhang, D., V. Karplus, S. Rausch and X. Zhang

Report 

237
25 p.
2016

Abstract/Summary: 

Decoupling fossil energy demand from economic growth is crucial to China’s sustainable development. In addition to energy and carbon intensity targets enacted under the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), a coal or fossil energy cap is under discussion as a way to constrain the absolute quantity of energy used. Importantly, implementation of such a cap may be compatible with existing policies and institutions. We evaluate the efficiency and distributional implications of alternative energy cap designs using a numerical general equilibrium model of China’s economy, built on the 2007 regional input-output tables for China and the Global Trade Analysis Project global data set. We find that a national cap on fossil energy implemented through a tax on final energy products and an energy saving allowance trading market is the most costeffective design, while a regional coal-only cap is the least cost-effective design. We further find that a regional coal cap results in large welfare losses in some provinces. Capping fossil energy use at the national level is found to be nearly as cost effective as a national CO2 emissions target that penalizes energy use based on carbon content.