A Behavioral Model of Hurricane Risk and Coastal Adaptation

Conference Proceedings Paper
A Behavioral Model of Hurricane Risk and Coastal Adaptation
Franck, T. (2008)
Conference Proceedings, International System Dynamics Conference 2008 (Athens, Greece, July)

Abstract/Summary:

Studies of households have shown a poor perception of natural disaster risks and potential disaster severity, typically overreacting to a disaster event but underpreparing and underinsuring after periods of quiet. Many estimates of disaster response and their economic impacts haven't taken these sub-optimal household perceptions into consideration. Here I build a model of a coastal community to understand how household perceptions are important to modeling a particular natural disaster, hurricanes. "Population Overcrowding" and "Household Motivation for Insurance" are shown to be important feedbacks to the model, necessary to understanding the data. Overcrowding of a community because of limited housing discourages population and inhibits economic growth. A household's desire to insure against a disaster drives insurance coverage, though their desire wanes after several years. While the behavioral decision-making literature and other studies support the relationships between model variables, the model process identified important gaps in the data, suggesting directions for future empirical work.

Citation:

Franck, T. (2008): A Behavioral Model of Hurricane Risk and Coastal Adaptation. Conference Proceedings, International System Dynamics Conference 2008 (Athens, Greece, July) (http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2008/index.html)
  • Conference Proceedings Paper
A Behavioral Model of Hurricane Risk and Coastal Adaptation

Franck, T.

International System Dynamics Conference 2008 (Athens, Greece, July)

Abstract/Summary: 

Studies of households have shown a poor perception of natural disaster risks and potential disaster severity, typically overreacting to a disaster event but underpreparing and underinsuring after periods of quiet. Many estimates of disaster response and their economic impacts haven't taken these sub-optimal household perceptions into consideration. Here I build a model of a coastal community to understand how household perceptions are important to modeling a particular natural disaster, hurricanes. "Population Overcrowding" and "Household Motivation for Insurance" are shown to be important feedbacks to the model, necessary to understanding the data. Overcrowding of a community because of limited housing discourages population and inhibits economic growth. A household's desire to insure against a disaster drives insurance coverage, though their desire wanes after several years. While the behavioral decision-making literature and other studies support the relationships between model variables, the model process identified important gaps in the data, suggesting directions for future empirical work.